Sean Calvert previews tonight's Men's US Open Final and believes Novak Djokovic, in calm conditions at least, is just that little bit better than Andy Murray...
"The Serbian is defending just too well on a hard court at the moment and he does everything a little bit better than the Scot, who really needs Nole to have an off day to win this."
Andy Murray takes on Novak Djokovic in the 2012 US Open Men's Singles Final today in New York.
Once again the showpiece match of the tournament has been delayed by the weather and yet again the arguments have surfaced about a roof after what were frankly ludicrous scenes in the semi finals.
At least those who followed my back-to-lay tip of Tomas Berdych would have made an instant profit, as the Czech was available to lay at [1.87] from [2.96] after the first set of his match with Murray.
So, Murray will take to Arthur Ashe Stadium Court tonight for his second US Open final and fifth major final in all hoping to avoid becoming the first man in history to lose five Slam finals in a row.
That unwanted tag looks set to be Murray's legacy, at least for the time being, as he takes on a man who looks pretty much unbeatable on a hard court right now - assuming the weather stays calm that is.
Djokovic was blown off course almost as badly as Berdych in his semi final against David Ferrer until he got lucky when the grounds were evacuated due to a tornado warning. But when play resumed in calm conditions he blew Ferrer away as expected and in so doing showed some of his best form.
And with the forecast set fair Djokovic is a worthy favourite at a price of around [1.43], with Murray available to back at around [3.3].
This will be their 15th meeting in all, with Novak leading 8-6 in total and 2-0 in Grand Slam matches.
Their last meeting of any relevance to today was the Australian Open semi final earlier this year when Djokovic won a five set marathon and with conditions here arguably suiting Djokovic just a bit more than Melbourne, which I think suits Murray's game perfectly, I expect a similar result.
The Serbian is defending just too well on a hard court at the moment and he does everything a little bit better than the Scot, who really needs Nole to have an off day to win this.
That can easily happen of course, as we saw with Serena Williams last night, who had a shocking final two sets (but still won), however it does seem unlikely given the drive that Djokovic possesses.
I will be on the world number two at his current odds, but punters looking for a bigger price could do a lot worse than backing Djokovic to win 3-1 at odds of [3.75].
Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1