Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are set to do battle in the 2015 US Open final on Sunday and Sean Calvert expects the world number one to emerge victorious...
"The 1.834/5 about a Djokovic win looks the play here, with the Serb unbeaten against Federer in majors on hard courts since the 2009 US Open final."
It's fair to say that the 2015 US Open is not one that will live long in the memory for me (the men's tournament at least) and Novak Djokovic's destruction of Marin Cilic ended my outright interest in it on Friday.
On a day that was infinitely more interesting on the women's side, Djokovic destroyed Cilic, who said he would have pulled out due to his ankle injury had it not been a major semi, and consequently neither of my bets were even vaguely close on semi-final day.
At least we made a small profit on the back-to-lay on Cilic, who was blown away by a fast start and an impressive showing from the Serb, who may be peaking at the right time, but Cilic was clearly nowhere near full fitness.
World number two Roger Federer, after surviving a tough opening service game against Stan Wawrinka, went from strength-to-strength and ended up in total control against his Davis Cup team-mate, so we have yet another Federer/Djokovic final.
I went with Federer in the Cincinnati final a few weeks ago, but for me this is a different set of circumstances and I'm expecting a different result.
There looks to be a bit of value on Djokovic here after all the talk has been about the Swiss over the last month or so, with his SABR routine and all of the impressive wins.
But 1.834/5 about a Djokovic win looks the play, with the Serb unbeaten against Federer in majors on hard courts since the 2009 US Open final.
Federer's wins tend to come over best-of-three sets in quick conditions and a night match on Ashe over best-of-five doesn't strike me as the optimum conditions for the Swiss maestro.
Looking at his draw at the start of the fortnight I didn't fancy him at all, but the potential tests against Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray didn't happen, so he hasn't faced anyone who can defend yet.
Wawrinka tries to fight fire with fire and this time it didn't pay off for Stan and as I said on these pages Richard Gasquet was the perfect quarter final opponent for Federer.
This 42nd career clash with Djokovic will be a totally different proposition and one in which Federer won't be allowed to dictate the play like he was against the likes of Gasquet.
Federer has never beaten Djokovic in a fifth set and the longer this goes the more I'd fancy the Serb, with the 3-2 win for Djokovic a tempting 6.411/2 chance.
I'm still waiting for a classic match in this men's tournament, with only really Kevin Anderson vs Murray coming close in terms of drama, and maybe this mediocre US Open has saved its best until last.
It could certainly be argued that Federer is playing some of the best, if not the best, tennis of his career right now at the age of 34, but he'll have to rewrite the record books if he's going to win at this age.
And given Novak's easy route through the semi-finals he'll be in prime condition to draw the sting out of the Federer attacks and I do feel that Federer will need to win this in three, or a maximum of four, sets.
It's a big ask for Federer and at 2.26/5 in a best of five clash against Djokovic it's not for me.
Back Djokovic to beat Federer at 1.834/5
Tennis 2015 season P&L
Profit based on £10 stake per bet = +£503.38