US Open Men's Singles Day Seven: Carreno-Busta should be favourite against Shapovalov

Pablo Carreno-Busta is the latest to try and derail the Shapovalov bandwagon...
Pablo Carreno-Busta is the latest to try and derail the Shapovalov bandwagon...

Sunday's action at the US Open sees four men's singles as the fourth round gets under way, and our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, runs the rule over who can get through to the quarter-finals...

"If we factor in all of Shapovalov's matches this year on the surface, my model priced Carreno-Busta at 1.564/7, but if we look at the last three months in isolation for the Canadian - when he has improved the most - his figures would still price Carreno-Busta at around 1.804/5."

Federer and Nadal progress on day six


Both Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal made it through to Monday's second half of the fourth round, although Nadal was pushed more by Leonardo Mayer, particularly in the early stages of their match, than many predicted, while Federer, after scraping past both Frances Tiafoe and Mikhail Youzhny, eased to a 3-0 win over Feliciano Lopez.

The differing natures of the two heavy favourite's victories has seen Nadal lengthen a bit in the outright market, although he's still favourite at 2.809/5, while Federer has considerably shortened to 3.2011/5, albeit still bigger than his tournament starting prices, which were just short of 3.02/1.

There are many players vying for third-favourite status, and three are in action today - Denis Shapovalov, Kevin Anderson and Sam Querrey.


Shapovalov again over-rated by the market


In the opening match on today's schedule, at 16:00pm UK time, Shapovalov faces the Spaniard, Pablo Carreno-Busta, after progressing past an injured Kyle Edmund on Friday. It's difficult to know how much of a test a fully-fit Edmund would have given the Canadian, but rather predictably, the 18-year-old is poor value as favourite against the more experienced Carreno-Busta.

It's getting to a situation whereby taking on Shapovalov in each subsequent round of the tournament could end up getting rather expensive, but the numbers surely dictate this will be necessary in the latter stages, and quite simply, my model did like Carreno-Busta here.

In eight main tour matches on hard court this year, Shapovalov has won seven, but his underlying stats are far from magnificent - he's won 65.2% of service points and 38.8% on return, and these solid but unspectacular figures are virtually identical to Carreno-Busta's numbers this year.

Furthermore, if we factor in all of Shapovalov's matches this year on the surface, including Challengers where I can adjust for opponent quality, my model priced Carreno-Busta at 1.564/7, but if we look at the last three months in isolation for the Canadian - when he has improved the most - his figures would still price Carreno-Busta at around 1.804/5.

Given this, we cannot ignore the 2.265/4 about Carreno-Busta today, and he is today's recommendation.


Schwartzman looks some value against Pouille


Lucas Pouille is another who has achieved decent results without having outstanding data, and Diego Schwartzman looks reasonable value at 2.1211/10 to get past the Frenchman. As I mentioned prior to his win over Marin Cilic, what you usually get from Schwartzman is full effort and excellent break deficit recovery, and I'm happy to have that onside this evening.


Anderson and Querrey correctly priced as favourites


The latter two matches on tonight's schedule look accurately priced, with Kevin Anderson a heavy 1.152/13 favourite to progress past the evergreen Paolo Lorenzi - the South African big-server has won all three of their past meetings - while Sam Querrey, the tournament dark horse for many, faces the older Zverev brother, Mischa, who ousted John Isner on Friday. Querrey is a solid 1.538/15 favourite to make the quarter finals.

Recommended Bets
Back Pablo Carreno-Busta at 2.265/4 to beat Denis Shapovalov


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