US Open Ladies Singles Day 10: Pliskova with edge on return over Vandweghe

Karolina Pliskova has a big return edge over Coco Vandeweghe...
Karolina Pliskova has a big return edge over Coco Vandeweghe...
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Day ten of the US Open takes place this evening, and with two semi-finalists known, tonight's winners face a quick turnaround to semi-finals day tomorrow. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, looks at the value on tonight's schedule...

"However, Pliskova has broken much more, 41.1% compared to 28.4%, and it is this large edge on return which helped generate a model price of [1.39] on the Czech"

Stephens and Williams with final set tiebreak victories


Last night's first two quarter-finals both went the distance, and by 'the distance', I mean final set tiebreaks, with both Americans, Sloane Stephens and Venus Williams, triumphing over Anastasija Sevastova and Petra Kvitova, respectively.

In the first, Sevastova lost despite winning two points more in the match, although Stephens had two more break points, and looking at the stats, it was a much closer match than Williams' win over Kvitova, with Venus winning 52% of the points and having 11 break points to four.


Williams and Pliskova sharing outright favouritism


The outright market is intriguingly open - much more so than the men's event - with Williams sharing [4.0] outright favourite status with Karolina Pliskova, while Madison Keys and Stephens are a little further back in the betting.


Serve-orientated match anticipated in first quarter-final


Joint favourite Pliskova commences tonight's schedule, with her match against Coco Vandeweghe likely to be extremely serve-orientated - projected hold percentages are more akin to a men's match - and looking at this year's data, both players have held serve exactly the same percentage, 78.6%, on hard courts.

However, Pliskova has broken much more, 41.1% compared to 28.4%, and it is this large edge on return which helped generate a model price of [1.39] on the Czech, meaning that the market prices of [1.63] did represent some value.

Pliskova has certainly underwhelmed at stages in this event, and faced match point against Shuai Zhang, but her demolition of Jennifer Brady in the last round should have helped her gain more confidence, and I like the world number one's chances here.


Kanepi's shock run likely to end at the hands of Keys


Should Pliskova make it through this evening, she will face either Madison Keys, or the qualifier, Kaia Kanepi. In a tournament full of surprise results, Kanepi's run to this stage, given that she didn't even play an event this year until July, is probably the biggest, and will certainly help her on her journey to work her way back up the rankings.

Keys' hard court stats are now getting closer to elite level, holding 80.4% this year on hard courts, and breaking opponents 34.5%, and that service number is the best of the remaining contenders for the title.

It's unlikely that the American will face sustained pressure on her serve tonight, and for Kanepi to continue her incredible tournament, she will need to take her rare chances.

Keys is currently trading at [1.24] on the Exchange, and this is a price my model largely agreed with, and I'd expect her to make it through to tomorrow night's semi-finals.

Recommended Bets

Back Karolina Pliskova at [1.63] to beat Coco Vandeweghe

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