US Open Men's Betting: Five potential round one upsets

Querrey has a history of round one losses at majors
Querrey has a history of round one losses at majors

The men's singles main draw at the US Open 2016 gets underway on Monday and Sean Calvert is back with his top-five possible upsets in round one...


"Querrey has lost five times in his last seven opening rounds of Grand Slams..."

Back Tipsarevic to beat Querrey at 5.59/2

The US Open is often one of the best majors for early upsets, with five winners at 4.03/1 or bigger and a further five priced between 3.02/1 and 4.03/1. Here are my five possible round one upsets for 2016.

Janko Tipsarevic vs Sam Querrey

Querrey looks an upset in the making at the moment after a poor run of form post-Wimbledon and continued physical problems with a back issue that have likely contributed substantially to his results.

Losses on hard courts to Santiago Giraldo and Pablo Cuevas make poor reading and he just scraped past the out of form Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Winston Salem before losing in straights to the equally off form Viktor Troicki.

Querrey's US Open results haven't been great lately either, with a straight sets loss to Nicolas Mahut last year and a five set loss to Adrian Mannarino in 2013, plus a five set struggle versus Maxi Gonzalez in 2014.

His opponent Tipsarevic is on the comeback trail from serious injury, but his fitness is now pretty good judging by his Challenger win on clay in China, where he played seven straight matches before taking a rest ahead of New York.

The level is still there, as he showed when beating Grigor Dimitrov in one of his early comeback matches as a 5.59/2 chance, and with Querrey's service hold/break stats down at 82.9% and 14.7% in his last 10 matches on hard courts his price looks dismal.

Add in the fact that Querrey has lost five times in his last seven opening rounds of Grand Slams and we have a favourite who looks very poor value indeed and wouldn't it be very Querrey-like to beat Djokovic in one Slam and then lose in round one as a heavy favourite the next?


Fernando Verdasco vs Stan Wawrinka


Another one who's suffering from back problems is Wawrinka, who skipped the Rio Olympics and was rated by coach Magnus Norman as highly doubtful to play Cincy - and perhaps he ought not to have.

Wawrinka was not far off losing to Jared Donaldson in his opening match there before a lacklustre loss to Dimitrov next up in straight sets and I think he's worth taking on here against an opponent that has won two of their last three matches.

Verdasco was a straight sets winner over Wawrinka on the grass at Queen's earlier this summer and in all he's won three of their five clashes, although none have been on a hard court.

On the stats over their last 10 matches each on outdoor hard we see that Wawrinka has struggled to hold serve, with only 81.2% holds and that isn't good at all for a number three seed at a major.

He breaks serve 20.6% of the time, which isn't great either, while Verdasco holds his own deal more often at 84.9% of the time and breaks 16.7% of the time.

Tie breaks are likely here and I'd give the Spaniard a decent chance of an upset in this one against a below par Wawrinka lacking in matches.


Viktor Troicki vs Radu Albot


I'm taking a bit of a punt here, but I don't fancy Troicki at all in this one against an opponent who makes you work hard for anything you get and I wouldn't be at all shocked if the Serb was beaten.

Troicki played okay for a while this week in Winston-Salem, but he's done nothing all season and it showed in the way that he collapsed, not once but twice, in his semi final against Roberto Bautista-Agut, who somehow blew a set and 5-0 lead.

RBA recovered and Troicki folded again in that one, but looking at the Serb's stats this season of only 76.2% holds and 20.5% breaks he'll need better to break down Albot.

The Moldovan's weak serve is often broken at this level (and he very rarely plays tie breaks) but he breaks an amazing 32% of the time on outdoor hard courts at main level in 2016 (28.5% lifetime).

Albot beat Troicki last season indoors in Kuala Lumpur and if Troicki's suspect forehand has one of its regular bad days he could go here.


Denis Kudla vs Alessandro Giannessi


We have to take a chance on the Italian underdog here, with the favourite Kudla in a horrible run of form this summer and having produced truly dismal stats in his last 10 matches on hard courts.

Kulda has lost 10 of his last 11 matches at main level going back to May when he beat Ivo Karlovic on clay in Madrid in three tie breaks and he was thrashed by clay courter Andrej Martin in the Rio Olympics.

Martin had only played six matches at main level on hard courts before bagelling Kudla (and four of those were in Davis Cup) and Kulda's 63.4% service holds and 14.9% breaks in his last 10 on hard at main level make dreadful reading for the American.

Giannessi beat the in-form Yuichi Sugita, plus Tobias Kamke and Ramkumar Ramanathan to qualify and has 82% holds and 23.2% breaks in his last 10 matches at main level on outdoor hard.


Yoshihito Nishioka vs Kevin Anderson


The big South African's 2016 season could scarcely have panned out more differently to last year when Anderson had almost stunned Djokovic at Wimbledon and then did take out Murray here in New York.

Injuries and other fitness problems have meant that he's managed only 10 wins all season and he was suffering from yet another "couple of issues" a few days ago in Winston-Salem when he lost in straight sets in his opening match to Jiri Vesely (who himself was injured and retired in his next match).

Anderson has been a shadow of the player that made the top-10 last October and even his serve isn't doing what it should for him with only 84.1% holds on outdoor hard in 2016.

That's the same mark as Pablo Cuevas, but his return is as weak as ever, with just 12.1% breaks of serve on outdoor hard in 2016. Even John Isner has 13.1% breaks.

If the real Anderson turns up he could blow Nishioka away, but we haven't seen that Anderson for some time and Nishioka's 27.2% break of serve mark at main level (and 80% holds) on outdoor hard in 2016 could well make this interesting.

The Japanese did beat Feli Lopez in straight sets on hard in Miami this season and so he's not afraid of a big serve. He just gets the nod as the fifth upset ahead of Taylor Fritz, Radek Stepanek and Alexandr Dolgopolov.


Recommended Bets


Back Tipsarevic to beat Querrey at 5.59/2
Back Verdasco to beat Wawrinka at 4.03/1

Back Albot to beat Troicki at 5.24/1
Back Giannessi to beat Kudla at 3.259/4
Back Nishioka to beat Anderson at 4.03/1


Tennis 2016 season P&L

Profit based on £10 stake per bet = £672.60

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