US Open Men's Day Four Tips: Verdasco can get the better of Chung

Spanish Tennis Player Fernando Verdasco
Fernando Verdasco is capable of defeating Hyeon Chung tonight...
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After yesterday's delays, there's a jam-packed schedule at the US Open on Thursday evening, and returning to give his thoughts on the bottom half of the men's draw is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"That five-set comeback win against Escobedo from 2-1 down took over three and a half hours, with Chung actually facing more break points, and this doesn't bode well for a match against considerably upgraded opposition here today."

Big names enjoy scheduling benefits following delays

The majority of second round matches in the top half of the men's draw didn't get played yesterday, although the big names took priority and did get through. Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov (via walkover against Borna Coric) all progressed and now enjoy a considerable scheduling advantage over their opponents for their third round matches on Friday, with whoever they will play needing to play back-to-back best of five set matches on consecutive days.

Our pick from yesterday, Dan Evans, is in that boat. He will need to defeat Lucas Pouille today before going on to face Federer tomorrow, and it's a real shame that scheduling has created a tougher task for whoever wins out of the Evans v Pouille clash. Federer doesn't look at his best so far in this tournament, dropping the opening set twice in two rounds, against Sumit Nagal and Damir Dzumhur, and a fresh Evans or Poulle - a fair upgrade in quality from those two men - would give him a potentially tricky encounter.

Pospisil can test Sandgren

As for today's matches, there's not a ton that I'm overly enthused about. The market looks pretty defensive about Vasek Pospisil - perhaps unsurprisingly given his long-term injury issues - but he's now played seven matches since the start of July and he looks to be getting back to full fitness. Both he, and opponent Tennys Sandgren played five-setters on day two and I think Sandgren, whose data is certainly nothing special, looks a little over-rated at [1.63].

Berrettini with much to prove on hard courts

Another player I think is over-rated here is Matteo Berrettini, who is a similar [1.61] against Jordan Thompson. I mentioned Thompson as a serially under-rated player recently, and while Berrettini has had an excellent season so far, most of his success has been on clay and greass - he's not done a great deal on hard courts.

On hard courts this year, Berrettini's service/return point data is very similar indeed to Thompson and I feel that there's a fair bit of bias in his price based on performances on other surfaces. Thompson looks reasonable value at [2.60] for the underdog win.

Verdasco underdog value to defeat Chung

The other spot which looks to provide some underdog value is Fernando Verdasco at [2.12] against Hyeon Chung. The Spanish veteran still is avoiding considerable decline at the age of 35, but my one concern here is Verdasco's retirement against Benoit Paire in Cincinnati several weeks ago.

Chung has had his own fitness issues though, seeing his ranking drop from top 20 to well outside the top 100 ater taking almost half the year off, and he himself gave a walkover to Yuichi Sugita several weeks ago on the Challenger Tour. This was probably due to a long week after winning the Chengdu event the previous week - he'd played seven matches in a week and a half following his comeback from injury, but I'm also thinking that Chung could be fatigued after a five-set epic against Ernesto Escobedo in round one.

That five-set comeback win against Escobedo from 2-1 down took over three and a half hours, with Chung actually facing more break points, and this doesn't bode well for a match against considerably upgraded opposition here today. Verdasco looks decent value to make round three here.

Kyrgios again in hot water

In other matches, Nick Kyrgios looks short at [1.12] against the improving Frenchman Antoine Hoang particularly given his current problems from media comments and his general tendency to implode on court. Fellow young-gun Andrey Rublev also looks short against a player who loves a long battle, in Gilles Simon. We will also see Rafa Nadal on court, plus most of yesterday's rescheduled round two matches from the top half of the draw, so there's plenty of action for everyone on day four at the US Open.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan's US Open P&L:-

5 Matches
3 Wins
5 Units Staked
7.95 Units Returned
59% ROI

Dan Weston,

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