US Open Men's Day Two Tips: Schnur capable of frustrating Paire

French Tennis Player Benoit Paire
Benoit Paire is unlikely to have it easy tonight against Brayden Schnur...

Tuesday's action at the US Open sees the second half of first round matches take place, and back to give his thoughts on the 32 men's matches is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"In addtion, Paire was extended to 14 sets in Winston Salem last week - he lost in the final to Hubert Hurkacz, who will have felt the after-effects yesterday in his loss to Jeremy Chardy."

Sinner proving he's one to watch

We went one from two yesterday with Tomas Berdych shocked by the unheralded qualifier Jenson Brooksby, but Jannik Sinner bagging us our first winner in the men's US Open this year, taking the required set against Stan Wawrinka. It could have been even better for the talented Italian prospect, with Wawrinka needing to save 10 of 14 break points and Sinner actually had more break point chances than his more illustrious, veteran opponent. Sinner is certainly one to watch.

First round action continues this evening from 16:00 UK time with the bottom half of the draw taking to the courts, but there's not an abundance of value on the schedule tonight.

Schnur can test fatigued Paire

It wouldn't surprise me if Brayden Schnur was able to give a good account of himself as a heavy [4.50] underdog against Benoit Paire. The Frenchman, Paire, is inconsistent at the best of times and doesn't have a particularly decent hard court record, whether short-term or long-term.

In addtion, Paire was extended to 14 sets in Winston Salem last week - he lost in the final to Hubert Hurkacz, who will have felt the after-effects yesterday in his loss to Jeremy Chardy - and Schnur has shown improvement this season, reaching the final of the Winnipeg Challenger on hard court in early July, as well as reaching the final of the New York ATP event in February, indoors.

After we managed to get a winner on Jannik Sinner +2.5 sets yesterday, taking the same line on Schnur at a slightly lower price makes a lot of sense. Furthermore, if Paire falls behind by a break, there's a reasonable chance he could tank a set in order to preserve energy.

The Exchange market is still forming here, but we should be able to get around [1.60] which is general market prices on Sinner to win a set or cover the +2.5 set handicap line.

Fratangelo underdog value against declining Simon

Slightly less of an underdog, but still highlighted as some value by my model is Bjorn Fratangelo at [2.82] against Gilles Simon, with Fratangelo - often over-rated by the markets in the past - now looking pretty under-rated for this clash against a declining opponent.

Fratangelo has played a couple of main tour victories, and a three-set loss to Ugo Humbert and a creditable five-game loss to the August sensation, Daniil Medvedev, are hardly a disgrace. Against an almost 35 year old opponent in Simon who has lost his last four matches (not winning a set in the last three of those) and who has shown a pretty mediocre record this season on hard court, Fratangelo could provide some scope as a value underdog.

Thompson deserving favourite status over Sousa

My numbers also like Jordan Thompson against Joao Sousa, with Thompson having better hard court data this season (around a 2% edge on combined service/return points won). He's probably under-rated here - and I perceive this often to be the case on the main tour - because he's struggled to back up his performances from the Challenger Tour, where he ran at superb numbers last season.

Winning 50% of his main tour matches on hard court plus running at over 100% combined service/return points won in those matches this year shows Thompson is starting to get to grips with the higher level and it's not surprising at all to see him receiving market support and being backed into [1.75].

Kokkinakis one to keep an eye on here

In other matches, Rafa Nadal faces a competent hard courter in John Millman, but naturally is a heavy favourite to progress, while our pick for quarter three, Roberto Bautista-Agut, is in action against Mikhail Kukushkin. I'm also keen to see how Thanasi Kokkinakis fares against qualifier Ilya Ivashka - bare numbers like the Australian here, although he's obviously had his fitness issues. Should he be clear of these, I'm anticipating a rapid ranking rise for Kokkinakis.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan Weston,

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