Sean Calvert enjoyed some big-priced winners on Tuesday at the US Open and is back with more wagers on day three in New York...
"Harrison has won at least one set in seven of his last nine against the big servers on my database and that would be enough to see the overs home surely at 1.855/6."
On a very busy day of tennis betting at the US Open on Tuesday we managed to find some big-prices success with a couple of the 'potential round one upsets', which was enough to turn a profit on those wagers.
Janko Tipsarevic provided a 5.59/2 success by beating Sam Querrey and that was soon followed by a 3.259/4 winner in the form of Alessandro Giannessi, who outlasted Denis Kudla on another steaming hot day in the Big Apple.
Radu Albot came very close to making it three when he let a 2-0 lead slip against Viktor Troicki and also a 4-0 lead in the final set tie break (he also led *5-4 in that breaker).
Elsewhere there was an early retirement from Borna Coric that meant our wager on Feli Lopez was void and Andy Murray backers will be delighted at how well he started against Lukas Rosol, not allowing the Czech a chance.
Today's card features 16 round two matches, with 14 being played on televised courts, and we're expecting another hot and humid day in New York, with a chance of some thundery showers.
All eyes will doubtless be on Novak Djokovic, whose fitness is yet to be proven, but he might well be lucky today in that his opponent Jiri Vesely seems far from fit himself and had a five setter in round one.
Even a below par Djokovic should be too good for Vesely, though the latter will be hoping he gets another shocker from the Serb that allowed the Czech to beat him in Monte-Carlo earlier in the season, but lightning rarely strikes the same place twice.
Kyle Edmund looks very short after his win over an unfit Richard Gasquet and may well need to work a lot harder against Ernesto Escobedo, who does have some decent weapons to his game.
He's a typical American style player, with a hard serve and looking to the forehand to punch holes in the defences of his opponents and I'm far from convinced about Edmund against that sort of game on quickish hard courts.
Those backing Edmund at 1.292/7 are taking a risk on a player who only holds 79.4% of the time and breaks 23.9% of the time on outdoor hard this season, which are okay stats, but hardly worthy of that sort of price.
The Gasquet win aside (the Frenchman was awful and nowhere near match fit) Edmund has lost to Steven Diez, Yuichi Sugita and Taro Daniel on hard courts this summer and Escobedo has better numbers than Edmund at 83.1% holds and 26.7% breaks on hard in 2016.
He's coming from a Challenger win in Lexington a month ago and will be boosted by both the crowd and the win over Lukas Lacko in round one.
The pair have met only once and it went the distance and I'm going to take a chance on Escobedo here in what will be tough conditions and at what looks too big a price.
The Brit has lost his last three matches on outdoor hard when priced up at 1.330/100 or shorter and this looks a risk worth taking on the American, with Edmund unproven to say the least in heat like this.
I also like the chances of there being a tie break in the match between Nico Almagro and Pablo Cuevas and over 33.5 total games in Milos Raonic's match against Ryan Harrison.
Almagro's numbers on hard courts in 2016 show that he holds 88.7% of the time and breaks just 14.3% of the time, playing 0.28 tie breaks per set (more than Kevin Anderson and the same as Vasek Pospisil).
Cuevas is no stranger to tie breaks either, playing 27 of them so far in 2016, and also a struggler on return of serve.
The price on Cuevas looks decent, but he did go five in the last round, and 1.574/7 on a tie break seems the better option.
I'm not as convinced as the layers that Raonic will have an easy day today against the occasionally decent Harrison, who has caused problems for the Canadian in the past and has wins over the likes of John Isner this summer.
He's won at least one set in seven of his last nine against the big servers on my database and that would be enough to see the overs home surely at 1.855/6.
He plays a lot of tie breaks at 0.28 per set and holds serve often enough at 86.5% to worry Raonic - at least for a while.
Back Escobedo to beat Edmund at 4.47/2
Back tie break played in Almagro/Cuevas at 1.574/7
Back over 33.5 games in Harrison/Raonic at 1.855/6
Tennis 2016 season P&L
Profit based on £10 stake per bet = £712.10
New improvements to mobile Exchange betting on the US Open!
You are now able to see live scores of the tennis match you're betting on, in real time on your mobile. This is available at the top of the market view screen.
Game by Game Betting
We’ve made huge improvements to our game-by-game betting experience, making it far easier for you to bet on individual games during a match when using your mobile. In addition, we’ll have plenty of liquidity available within our game and set betting markets.