US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 30 August 2009 /

...plus four hot favourites to swerve at Flushing Meadows

It was another excellent week last week in New Haven, where my tip Fernando Verdasco romped to the Pilot Pen title without dropping a set at [7.0] and what better way to reinvest those winnings than in some possible first round shocks at the US Open.

The tournament favourites look nailed on to win their opening encounters, including Roger Federer, who has somewhat ridiculously been matched with former junior runner-up and world number 1,364 Devin 'D-Train' Britton.

The 'D-Train' is [120.0] to derail Fed and whilst I won't be rushing to back that, there are a few outsiders worth siding with over the next few days.

Andreas Seppi [2.56] to beat Phillip Kohlschreiber [1.62]

Kohlschreiber has been on a miserable run of form on the hard courts since enjoying a decent clay court campaign and was beaten by Chris Guccione in Cincinnati.

The German has lost four of his last five matches on all surfaces and has been beaten in the first round in New York three times - his best performance here being a solitary third round effort in 2007.

Seppi beat Kohlschreiber on the only occasion that the pair have met and he has the better recent form, having won a challenger last month.

The Italian has only been defeated by Verdasco and Nadal in his hard court campaign and should provide a stern test for Kohlschreiber.


Fabrice Santoro [4.7] to beat Juan Carlos Ferrero [1.27]

How can you not back 'The Magician' in his last ever appearance in a Grand Slam?

The genius French veteran has taken out Ferrero in two of their three hard court meetings, including at the Australian Open this year, and was a set to the good before tiring when the pair met at Wimbledon recently.

Santoro recently took six weeks off the tour and after a quick preparation in New Haven, where he beat Starace before losing to Davydenko, will be in top shape for what will be an emotional Slam farewell.

Ferrero lost to Cilic in straight sets in the first round in Cincy and looks tired after an exhausting campaign to get back into the top 20 in the rankings.


Mikhail Youzhny [2.10] to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu [1.88]

After losing to Youzhny in one of the most famous chokes of all time in the Davis Cup Final decider in 2002, Mathieu has always struggled against the Russian.

Mathieu has won just one of the pair's five meetings and admitted after his last match that he was lacking in confidence, something that has plagued the Frenchman throughout his career.

Youzhny on the other hand is a former semi finalist here and is playing the best tennis of his season so far following a poor campaign by his standards.


Giovanni Lapentti [2.2] to beat Simon Greul [1.80]

Lapentti has been campaigning solely on the North American hard courts since week 29 on the Challenger circuit in preparation for qualifying here and has had some decent results, beating the likes of Nicolas Mahut on the way.

Greul by contrast has been playing on his favoured clay and hasn't set foot on a hard court since March.

Lapentti also won the pair's only meeting, which was on hard in Indian Wells.


Daniel Koellerer [4.5] to beat Mardy Fish [1.27]

Bit of a long shot this one, purely on the basis that whoever Fish plays at the moment he will struggle.

The American has a broken rib, which he sustained on Davis Cup duty and has lost three of his last four matches since. Fish has been advised to rest for eight weeks and wouldn't be playing if it were any other event than the US Open.

Koellerer should be able to take advantage of this situation, having won a challenger in Italy two weeks ago, but he remains more famous for his bizarre behaviour than for his tennis, so small stakes on this one.

* * *

Big priced favourites to think twice before lumping on include: -

James Blake at [1.13] to beat Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo

Blake has been injured since the Davis Cup in July and has been concentrating on opening a clothing line since. His comeback in Cincy was disappointing and he's lost his last five matches in a row, plus Ramirez Hidalgo has beaten Blake on hard before.

Rafa Nadal at [1.09] to beat Richard Gasquet

What a first round match-up this is! Nadal should win, but Gasquet for once has no pressure on him and can swing from the hip with nothing to lose. Could be interesting.

David Ferrer at [1.05] to beat Alberto Martin

Ferrer has tendonitis and is unlikely to last long at the US Open this year. Also, Ferrer only leads the head-to-head series 4-3 and lost to Martin the last time they played, which was on a hard court.

Tommy Haas at [1.14] to beat Alejandro Falla

Tommy has lost three of his last four matches on the North American hard court swing and has been suffering with blisters on his hand lately.

Falla is no mug and has beaten Haas on a hard court before (in Miami in 2007).

Expect Haas to prevail, but not without a struggle against a dogged and awkward leftie opponent, who has beaten the likes of Gulbis and Sela of late.

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