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US Open Men's Singles Day 8: Del Potro a false favourite for Thiem clash

Juan Martin Del Potro looks over-rated by the market tonight...
Juan Martin Del Potro looks over-rated by the market tonight...
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The US Open fourth round is completed this evening, and with eight players competing to make the quarter-finals, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, is back to check out the value...

"Thiem has a much better 2017 win-loss record than the Argentine, not to mention recent Grand Slam record, and I'm surprised to see him at such prices - my model priced him at [1.94] against the Tower of Tandil."

Shapovalov bandwagon derailed by Carreno-Busta


After a hit-and-miss US Open so far, it was pleasing to see the Denis Shapovalov bandwagon finally derailed as the Canadian crashed out in three straight tiebreaks against Pablo Carreno-Busta, to give us a winner.

I also remarked that Diego Schwartzman was value against Lucas Pouille, and the diminutive Argentinian also triumphed, this time in four sets, on what was a pleasing day on the men's card.

We also saw Sam Querrey and Kevin Anderson make it through - both were favourites to do so - and there's not much action at the forefront of the outright market, with Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer still tournament favourites around the [3.0] mark.


Rublev a vulnerable front-runner against Goffin


Today's men's singles action commences at 17:30 UK time this evening, with both David Goffin and Andrey Rublev's match, as well as Rafa Nadal against Alexandr Dolgopolov taking place at the same time.

In the first match, I didn't find much pre-match value given the slight concerns I have over Goffin's fitness still, and the Belgian at [1.48] looks accurate.

In addition, if Goffin looks competitive enough but happens to be losing in-play, backing Goffin at bigger prices when a break down can be considered, with Rublev fitting a vulnerable front-runner profile.


Nadal a heavy favourite to defeat Dolgopolov


This was also the case for Dolgopolov, who is a heavy underdog against the King of Clay, Nadal, with the Spaniard currently available at [1.16] on the Exchange.

My model priced this similarly to the market, and it would be quite a big shock for Dolgopolov to take this, even considering his dramatic improvement in the last week here in New York.


Thiem value as underdog against Del Potro


The match that my model preferred from a pre-match value perspective sees Dominic Thiem as a slight underdog at [2.16] against Juan Martin Del Potro, which is a little surprising given that the Austrian enjoys a very marginal projected hold advantage, with both being just shy of the 80% mark.

Furthermore, Thiem has a much better 2017 win-loss record than the Argentine, not to mention recent Grand Slam record, and I'm surprised to see him at such prices - my model priced him at [1.94] against the Tower of Tandil.


Kohlschreiber next up in Federer's quest for 20th Slam title


Finally, at around midnight we see Roger Federer continue in his quest for his 20th Grand Slam title, and after several tough matches in the opening two rounds, he will have been delighted to ease past Feliciano Lopez in straight sets on Saturday.

Today, Federer faces Philipp Kohlschreiber, and will have positive memories of their previous meetings given that he has won all 12 of their head to head matches.

I certainly don't expect this to be lucky 13 for Kohlschreiber, and market prices of [1.14] about the Swiss legend look accurate.


Recommended Bets

Back Dominic Thiem at [2.16] to beat Juan Martin Del Potro


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