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US Open Men's Singles Day 9: Carreno-Busta a vulnerable front-runner in Schwartzman clash

Pablo Carreno-Busta is likely to be vulnerable if leading tonight...
Pablo Carreno-Busta is likely to be vulnerable if leading tonight...
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Tuesday evening - day nine of the US Open - sees the first two quarter-finals played in the men's singles tournament, and our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, returns to preview the action...

"However, I feel that a trading angle makes a little more sense than a pre-match back on Schwartzman, with the Argentine, as I've mentioned before, having a magnificent record at recovering break deficits."

Thiem defeat demonstrates small margins in tennis


Last night's fourth round matches provided plenty of drama and in what can only be described as a brutal loss, our selection of Dominic Thiem was beaten by a fitness-afflicted Juan Martin Del Potro despite having several match points and serving for the match.

The nature of this match suitably illustrates the short-term variance and volatility, and small margins, that is prevalent in all forms of gambling, and following this victory, Del Potro faces Roger Federer in the quarter-finals tomorrow following the Swiss' win in straight sets over Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Other winners on day eight were tournament favourite Rafa Nadal, who eased past Alexandr Dolgopolov, also in straight sets, while David Goffin was patently not fit as he crashed out at the hands of the youngster, Andrey Rublev. The Russian prospect's 'reward' is Nadal in the quarter-finals.

With just two quarter-finals on the schedule today, there is a marked difference in player styles between the two matches.


Carreno-Busta priced short against improving Schwartzman


First up, at 17:00 UK time, is the intriguing clash between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Diego Schwartzman, with the Spaniard, Carreno-Busta favoured by the market at [1.46].

I make this short, with Schwartzman certainly not without a chance, and I priced Carreno-Busta more conservatively, at [1.60] today.

However, I feel that a trading angle makes a little more sense than a pre-match back on Schwartzman, with the Argentine, as I've mentioned before, having a magnificent record at recovering break deficits, and in what is likely to be an extremely return-orientated encounter - both players have very low projected hold percentages - I like laying Carreno-Busta when leading by a break and trading below starting price in this match.


Anderson slightly under-rated in serve-orientated clash


The second match on the card tonight sees a serve-orientated match-up as Sam Querrey faces Kevin Anderson, in a repeat of their Wimbledon fourth-round match, which Querrey won in five sets.

In that match on grass, Querrey was a very marginal underdog, and it's interesting to note that in the Montreal Masters a few weeks ago on hard court, Anderson won easily in straight sets and was priced around [1.80]. However, he's a slight underdog today, at [2.22], which does seem a little out of line.

In fact, my model found it difficult to split either player today, and my numbers indicate anything much in excess of [2.26] about the South-African would represent some value.

Recommended Bets

Lay Carreno-Busta when a break up and trading below starting price


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