/ Ben Caudell / 16 October 2009 /

Ben Caudell selects the best bets as number two seed Novak Djokovic faces number six seed Nikolay Davydenko in a semi-final showdown that could see the Russian land a spot in the Barclays ATP Tour Finals.

Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) v Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Victory over Radek Stepanek in the quarter-finals in Shanghai has given the Russian's chances impetus after Robin Soderling's unpredicted loss to Feliciano Lopez who is ranked 41 in the world rankings.

Davydenko stormed into a one set lead against Radek Stepanek a player he has met on eight previous occasions, after a slight blip in the second set the Russian went on to overpower the Czech in the third, capitalising on six of the 14 break point opportunities he created to seal victory after two hours and one minute.

Novak Djokovic was made to work during his quarter-final with Gilles Simon. The Serb drew on his big match experience, eventually winning 6-3 2-6 6-2 in 2hrs and 23 minutes; but he was less than convincing and at times looked slightly fatigued.

Against Davydenko, Djokovic can expect another gruelling match that has three sets written all over .

Their head-to-head series reads 2-1 in Djokovic's favour, both wins for the Serb recorded at last year's Shanghai Masters Cup, one round-robin match and a three set epic in the final. Davydenko seems relaxed, he has nothing to lose against Djokovic and recently stated that he really doesn't mind not making the end of season finale in London.

Showing good form in Asia including a tournament win in Kuala Lumpur, there is value in backing Nikolay Davydenko from the off. Djokovic will surely be tiring, he has secured his place amongst the top eight so has little to prove, he won at last week's Beijing Open so will be looking forward to some much needed rest.

Selection: Back Nikolay Davydenko @ [3.1] to win match
Back Davydenko 2-1 @ [5.5]

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