The French Open women's singles moves into the quarter-final stage on Tuesday so Dan Weston discusses both of today's matches and looks for the betting value...
"Again, the two players have never previously met, but it's Rybakina with the better data on both serve and return on clay in the last 12 months. My model priced her at 1.618/13 for this match, and that's pretty much in line with the current market pricing."
Swiatek continues French Open dominance
There were four straight-set wins in Monday's women's singles action, with tournament favourite Iga Swiatek now going 22 consecutive sets won in the tournament after getting the better of Marta Kostyuk. There were also wins for Barbora Krejcikova, Cori Gauff and Maria Sakkari.
Swiatek's price in the outright market is now 1.845/6, implying that she has a 54% chance of winning the tournament, and I think that's arguably undervaluing the Pole.
Paula Badosa 7.413/2, Cori Gauff 11.010/1, Elena Rybakina 15.014/1, Barbora Krejcikova 15.5 and Maria Sakkari 18.5 are the next tier of players, with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Tamara Zidansek the outsiders.
Badosa with clear edge over Zidansek
Second favourite for the tournament Badosa continues her campaign today facing Zidansek, and based on the outright market pricing it's unsurprisingly Badosa who is the strong favourite to take this. She's 1.351/3 to get the win and I make her slightly bigger priced, at 1.501/2, but there's not enough value here to be considered noteworthy on Zidansek.
Badosa has around a 3.5% edge on service points won on clay in the last 12 months, and around a 1% advantage on return points won, and is now 17-2 in her last four tournaments with defeats against Veronika Kudermetova and Ashleigh Barty (who she has also beaten in that run).
The duo have never met before at main tour level and Badosa looks like a justified favourite to make her first Grand Slam semi-final.
Rybakina with better service and return data
The second quarter-final features Elena Rybakina versus Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, with again, neither player having made a Grand Slam semi-final. Evidently, we will see new faces in a Grand Slam semi-final, which shows how competitive most of the WTA Tour is, and how many players are capable of beating each other. Rybakina is 1.635/8 at the time of writing.
Again, the two players have never previously met, but it's Rybakina with the better data on both serve and return on clay in the last 12 months. My model priced her at 1.618/13 for this match, and that's pretty much in line with the current market pricing.
Given the above, there's not a lot of value in today's schedule, with my often-made assertion that the latter stages of Grand Slams are frequently well-priced by the market being the case again today.
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