Rome Masters Day Four: Haase can punish market faith in Shapovalov

Dutch Tennis Player Robin Haase
Robin Haase is again value this afternoon...

Wednesday's matches at the Rome Masters sees 12 second-round matches take place. Hoping for better weather than on Tuesday, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, previews the schedule...

"With Haase having a combined hold/break percentage of over 100% on clay in the last 12 months, are we really saying that Shapovalov is close to top 20 level on clay, which he'd need to be to justify these prices? "

Kohlschreiber success gives us two from two this week

We are currently two from two with this week's bets as Phillip Kohlschreiber covered the -2.5 game handicap to get past Jack Sock in straight sets last night, on what was a rather rain-affected day in the Italian capital.

In other matches, we saw several final-set tiebreaks as Lucas Pouille and Denis Shapovalov sneaked past Andreas Seppi and Tomas Berdych respectively, while there was disappointment as the hyped next-gen match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Borna Coric, went the way of the Greek talent, via Coric's retirement in the first set.

Ramos not without a chance for Isner match-up

Kicking off the action today at 10:00 UK time is Albert Ramos against John Isner, and Ramos' 12 month clay stats have taken a beating this season so far, after a superb showing last year, culminating in reaching the final in Monte Carlo.

The Spaniard today is a 2.6213/8 underdog against the American big-server, which does look some value, with the players quite similarly matched from a combined hold/break percentage perspective.

At 11/10 with the Sportsbook, there also looks to be a little value on the 7-6 to either player scoreline in the first set, with my model making this marginally odds-on, in what is obviously going to be a serve-orientated encounter. However, it's not the absurd value we saw in an Isner match last week in quicker conditions in Madrid, and I'm going to move on to some other matches.

Johnson, Bedene and Tsitsipas providing underdog value

Steve Johnson has acquited himself pretty well on clay in the last couple of years, but tends to do his best work on the American version of the dirt, but at 3.002/1 he looks a tempting price against Pablo Carreno-Busta, who has been very inconsistent this season so far.

Aljaz Bedene is another who performs well on clay, and looks generous at 2.6613/8 against Kevin Anderson, who isn't the most comfortable on the surface - although he has taken big strides to improve on it - and may be fatigued following his display last week in Madrid.

I also think that Stefanos Tsitsipas, similarly priced at 2.767/4 against Juan Martin Del Potro, could provide some food for thought for underdog hunters today - there is certainly only one player on an upward curve on clay right now - and my model makes this more competitive than the market would suggest.

However, the player I like for us to try and complete a hat-trick here in Italy this week is our hero from Monday, Robin Haase.

Market taking a gamble on Shapovalov potential

The Dutchman is 2.506/4 against Denis Shapovalov, and the market is taking an extreme chance on the young Canadian, who played a tough match against Tomas Berdych yesterday, while Haase got to rest following his win over Daniil Medvedev on Monday.

Shapovalov has little in the way of a track record on clay prior to last week in Madrid and I suspect that the quick conditions in Spain will have helped him immensely - they are more akin to hard/indoor pace - and he will struggle to back up his performances there.

With Haase having a combined hold/break percentage of over 100% on clay in the last 12 months, are we really saying that Shapovalov is close to top 20 level on clay, which he'd need to be to justify these prices?

I don't think so at all, so taking Haase as a value underdog is mandatory today.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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