Sean Calvert remains in excellent tipping form, and although he'd like to advise a big price selection this week he simply can't see beyond a home favourite...
"It’s not the best of prices and I’d like to make a case for one of the bigger priced players, but Tsonga has to be the bet in Metz at around [2.75]."
After the excitement of the US Open and Davis Cup it's back to reality this week as the ATP 250s take centre stage.
It was a profitable few days of Davis Cup action over the weekend, with my back-to-lay tips the Czech Republic winning at a good price and my daily tips showing a nice profit too.
There are two tournaments to choose from starting today and the one I'm focusing on is the Moselle Open in Metz, France.
This tournament is played on indoor hard and has been dominated by home players in recent years, with a French player taking home the trophy in each of the last three years.
Last year it was Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's turn to taste victory in the Green City and the world number six is back to defend the title that he won 12 months ago by defeating Ivan Ljubicic.And Tsonga looks a good thing to reach the final again as he's been given a pretty handy draw in the top half, with the opposition to the big Frenchman looking weak.
Marcel Granollers can play a bit indoors and he would be a potential threat, but he looked to be injured in the Davis Cup and I can't see a half-fit Granollers being able to pull off a win against a man who beat him 6-1, 6-2 a matter of weeks ago.
Other notable names in the top half include Ivo Karlovic, Nikolay Davydenko, Jarkko Nieminen, Benjamin Becker, Gilles Muller and Paul-Henri Mathieu.
None of these are exactly indoor specialists however and I would expect last year's semi finalist Muller to perhaps be the one to come through and face Tsonga in the semi finals.
The bottom half of the draw looks trickier in which to find a potential finalist as it's wide open, with Andreas Seppi, Gael Monfils, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Florian Mayer, Xavier Malisse, James Blake, Nicolas Mahut and Benoit Paire all in with chances on their best form.
Of these Kohlschreiber looks the most likely, having been 'rested' for the Davis Cup tie with Australia after an apparent falling out with his nation's tennis federation, so he comes here with a good chance to repeat his 2009 run to the final here.
Monfils is interesting on his comeback from another injury, this time a right knee problem that has kept him out since the middle of the clay court swing and although Lamonf is a former winner of this title it's hard to see him winning straight away after so long out.
Mayer comes here in form after two excellent straight sets wins on the clay of Hamburg in the Davis Cup, but it's a quick turnaround for him and the other Davis Cup players and he doesn't have a great record indoors where I suspect it's a bit too quick for him and those long backswings.
Albano Olivetti is an interesting wild card this week and his huge serve could well cause chaos indoors if he gets it right. The last time he played an indoor hard court event was in Marseille in February, where he stunned Mardy Fish and made the quarter finals before losing to Llodra.
His match against Blake will be interesting and with the American known to struggle against big servers that represents an opportunity for the Frenchman.
Seppi is the other player in with a big chance in that bottom half, but indoor hard is not his environment and he hasn't been past the last eight of a tour level tournament in these conditions since 2007.
So, this looks like an outstanding opportunity for Tsonga to retain his Metz crown, with little in the way of opposition in a draw that is heavily in favour of the Frenchman.
It's not the best of prices and I'd like to make a case for one of the bigger priced players, but Tsonga has to be the bet in Metz at around [2.75].