Monte-Carlo Masters Betting: Tough draw makes struggling Nadal a lay in Monaco

Sean Calvert
12 April 2015

Nadal has struggled so far in 2015

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The first Masters 1000 tournament of the 2015 clay swing begins on Sunday in Monte-Carlo and Sean Calvert has studied the draw for the best outright bets...

"This currently isn’t the Nadal of old and for me he’s too short in what is a tough draw..."

Lay Nadal to win Monte-Carlo at 3.02/1

I said last week that the start of the clay swing in Casablanca would see a wide open event in Morocco and so it proved, with 65.064/1 shot Daniel Gimeno-Traver making the final.

Robin Haase again fell to the same Moroccan lightning bolt in the rotund form of Lamine Ouahab, as I had feared he might, while Pablo Andujar was beaten in round two by Andreas Haider-Maurer.

The Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters is the start of the red dirt swing for most of the world's top players and the big names descend upon the Monte-Carlo Country Club for the third Masters 1000 of the season.

Stan Wawrinka is back to defend his title, while Novak Djokovic is seeking a third straight Masters title in 2015 and Rafa Nadal is after a ninth Monte-Carlo crown.

Roger Federer has never won this title, largely due to the presence of Nadal, and the Swiss maestro finds himself drawn in the easier bottom half this time and away from Djokovic and Nadal, who are placed together in the top half.

There's no Andy Murray this week because of his wedding, so that bottom half looks the place for a possible spot of value if you can see past the two Swiss players, who are set to clash in the quarter finals.

Once again Tomas Berdych, who we've backed twice this year at big prices, only for the Czech to lose in the semi finals (in Melbourne and Miami), has the best draw, with Milos Raonic and not a right lot else as the opposition to another semi final spot.

The Czech has never been past the semi finals here though and it's hard to see him beating Federer if they clashed in the last four and big-priced value seekers could opt for several alternative options in that quarter.

Raonic could be a decent pick, with the Canadian having a good clay court swing a year ago when he only lost to either eventual champions or eventual finalists.

The big serving Raonic lost to champions Carlos Berlocq in Estoril; Wawrinka in Monte-Carlo, Djokovic in Rome; and finalists Djokovic at the French Open and Kei Nishikori in Madrid.

His draw looks good and he has a 3-1 head-to-head career lead over Berdych, so it seems a better choice to side with the Canadian at a healthy-looking 65.064/1 than the Berdman at 26.025/1.

If you're going against Federer in the final quarter I'd be looking at Grigor Dimitrov and Alex Dolgopolov as the best options at 65.064/1 and 200.0199/1 respectively.

The top half looks really tough, with Djokovic and Nadal set to clash in the semi finals, but Nadal will most likely need to beat David Ferrer before then and probably either Martin Klizan or John Isner - both of whom have given Rafa big problems in the past.

I wouldn't put it past Nadal to come back to form here in Monte-Carlo, where he holds a stellar 50-3 record, but he's not the player he was, either physically or mentally at the moment, and he looks layable at 3.02/1.

I'm happy to take the eight-time champion on at that sort of price, as I'd be very surprised if he didn't trade higher at some point given his recent lack of form.

Nadal hasn't beaten a top-12 ranked player since the French Open last year and didn't exactly set the world alight in the Golden Swing, losing to Fabio Fognini and struggling against Berlocq and Pablo Cuevas.

This currently isn't the Nadal of old and for me he's too short in what is a tough draw.

Djokovic will like his draw though, with the likes of Bernard Tomic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Marin Cilic all unlikely to threaten him on clay and especially with the latter pair just back from injury.

Nico Almagro could prove a pest for a while in round two, but surely only a remarkable turnaround in fortunes from Ernests Gulbis would see the Latvian cause problems for the Serb.

Again, Djokovic is the most likely winner, with Wawrinka looking a possible option to retain his title, but at 15.014/1 it's hard to put much trust in the Swiss, who looked poor in Miami and Indian Wells.

He has beaten Federer twice at this tournament and perhaps he's better value than his countryman, who trades at around half the price of Wawrinka, but I prefer laying Rafa and having a small investment on Raonic with a view to trading out.

Recommended Bets
Lay Nadal to win Monte-Carlo at 3.02/1
Back to lay Raonic at 65.064/1