Miami Masters Day 3: Dimitrov facing a struggle to cover against Marterer

Bulgarian Tennis player Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor Dimitrov has struggled to cover handicap lines in similar match-ups...
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Friday afternoon sees the start of round two at the Miami Masters, and after another winner last night, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, previews the matches...

"Going back to March 2017, Dimitrov has only covered this line three times in 11 matches, when filtering for best of three set hard court matches where he was similarly priced. Given the value on Marterer, and Dimitrov's historic inabilty to cover, this seems a good spot."

Two from two recommendations get the win on Thursday

We went two from two last night with Evgeny Donskoy and Denis Istomin both winning 7-5 6-4 against Aljaz Bedene and Miomir Kecmanovic, and pleasingly, a number of the other players I discussed as being value also progressed to round two.

Big name players get their Miami campaigns underway

It's at this stage where the seeded, big-name, players enter the event, having received first-round byes, and among others, we see Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Novak Djokovic, Grigor Dimitrov and Juan Martin del Potro take to the courts today.

Of these, Cilic, Nishikori, Djokovic and Del Potro look accurately priced as favourites to varying degrees, but it will be interesting to see how Djokovic fares in his match-up with the volatile Benoit Paire, who tends to have fewer meltdowns against the better players on tour. Djokovic is [1.26] to get past the Frenchman tonight.

Dimitrov again over-rated in these slow outdoor conditions

Remaining from the above quintet is Grigor Dimitrov. A fortnight ago at Indian Wells, Fernando Verdasco was a value underdog against the Bulgarian and eliminated him in what was Dimitrov's first match in the event, and data gives me the impression that these outdoor events held in slower conditions are not to Dimitrov's liking - his data at quicker indoor venues is much better.

However, he's still being priced on name and reputation, and I quite like the chances of Maximilian Marterer - a huge young prospect - to give him a rough ride in one of the evening matches tonight at Crandon Park. We can get [3.50] about the young German on the Exchange currently, and my model made this some value, pricing him at a more conservative [2.85].

At the moment, the exchange market for the game handicap - Marterer +3.5 games - is still forming, and he's available at [1.90] to cover currently. I'd imagine this will settle around the [1.95] mark eventually, given general market prices, and going back to March 2017, Dimitrov has only covered this line three times in 11 matches, when filtering for best of three set hard court matches where he was similarly priced. Given the value on Marterer, and Dimitrov's historic inabilty to cover, this seems a good spot.

Broady can give Krajinovic a tough time

In other matches, I quite like the chances - perhaps on the handicap again - of our Wednesday hero, Liam Broady, against Filip Krajinovic. No doubt, Krajinovic is playing the best tennis of his career currently, but I feel that has led him to be over-rated and is just [1.28] against Broady, in one of the earlier matches this afternoon.

Rublev over estimated for Pospisil clash

Another player who looks over-rated is Andrey Rublev, whose data has massively improved in recent months, but is just [1.53] to get past Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian, Pospisil, is doing what he can to recover his ranking, mainly on the Challenger Tour, where he has gone winner/winner/semi/semi in his four Challenger events this year - he clearly is in relatively decent touch.

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