Miami Masters Day 7: Krajinovic likely to keep matters close against Del Potro

Serbian Tennis player Filip Krajinovic
Filip Krajinovic has hugely improved his level in recent months...
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It's fourth round action at the Miami Masters tonight, and with players fighting to make it into the quarter finals, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, assesses where the value lies...

"The handicap line is set at +4.5 games for Krajinovic, and in best of three set matches where Del Potro has been priced between [1.10] and [1.40] on hard court, he's covered this line just three times this year in 11 attempts - taking the [1.84] on the Exchange about Krajinovic to cover this line makes sense."

Anderson and Carreno-Busta among Monday winners

We managed to pick up a winner last night in Florida, with Kevin Anderson getting past Karen Khachanov - further worsening the Russian's record outdoors - and we also highlighted Pablo Carreno-Busta as a value proposition, and the Spaniard ousted Steve Johnson in straight sets.

Del Potro leads wide-open outright betting

With all remaining players left in the draw competing tonight - including the winner of the Thomas Berdych v Frances Tiafoe match, which is intriguingly poised from last night at 5-4* in the American's favour - the outright market is looking very congested.

Four players are in single-digit figure prices at the time of writing, with a further three priced shorter than [20.0] on the Exchange, including both our outright selections, Kevin Anderson and Borna Coric. Market favourite Juan Martin Del Potro's price has stayed unaltered from yesterday, with the Argentine currently the [3.7] favourite.

Cilic and Raonic with dominant head to head leads over opponents

The earlier matches on today's schedule look well priced by the market. Marin Cilic takes a dominant head to head lead into his meeting with John Isner, and is priced at [1.42] as a result, while Hyeon Chung's current top 10 level is reflected in his price against Joao Sousa.

Historically, Jeremy Chardy has struggled against Milos Raonic, losing all six head to head matches, although he has taken the Canadian to a deciding set on four occasions. Raonic is [1.48] to get past the Frenchman.

Carreno-Busta with value potential against Verdasco

My model priced Carreno-Busta at [1.57] against compatriot, Fernando Verdasco, making him again some value this evening, at a bigger [1.78]. I mentioned yesterday that Verdasco doesn't have the best record on hard courts in the last 12 months, and hold/break data gives Carreno-Busta an edge on both serve and return numbers.

Del Potro facing a struggle to cover against improved Krajinovic

However, the position I like tonight comes in the Juan Martin Del Potro match, where the tournament favourite takes Filip Krajinovic this evening. Del Potro is [1.24] to get past the Serb, but my pricing had him longer, at [1.40], given the extremely high level that Krajinovic has been operating at, both in recent months and the latter stages of last season also.

Indeed, Krajinovic is running at 103.3% combined serve/return points won percentage this year, and those numbers are in and around top 20 level, so it is unlikely that he will be outclassed here.

The handicap line is set at +4.5 games for Krajinovic, and in best of three set matches where Del Potro has been priced between [1.10] and [1.40] on hard court, he's covered this line just three times this year in 11 attempts - taking the [1.84] on the Exchange about Krajinovic to cover this line makes sense.

Coric and Kyrgios with market edge in battle of young prospects

In the later matches, four of the main young prospects on tour face off with Borna Coric a [1.63] favourite to get past Denis Shapovalov, while Nick Kyrgios is similarly priced to defeat Alexander Zverev. I was pretty surprised at the market price in the latter, hoping Kyrgios would be priced closer to evens (which would have made him value), but the market seems relatively accurate with its assessment of the Australian's chances here.

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