Miami Masters Day 5: Schwartzman a value underdog for Raonic clash

Argentine tennis player Juan Martin del Potro
Juan Martin Del Potro is now the favourite for the Miami Masters...
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The Miami Masters continues on Sunday evening, with a further eight men's singles matches on the schedule as the third round gets underway. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, previews the action...

"For this, Raonic is priced at [1.73] on the Exchange, but my model made this virtually level, pricing the Canadian at a bigger [1.96], with hard court data for the duo very similar indeed."

Kokkinakis shocks Federer with second round triumph

In addition to some strange results last night, there was a huge shock as Roger Federer was dumped out of the event in his first match, losing a final set tie-break to Thanasi Kokkinakis. I mentioned yesterday that I had some strong views on Kokkinakis' post-injury level and the match stats even from that Federer win haven't dissuaded me from them - I'll discuss my thoughts in depth tomorrow, when I preview his third round match against Fernando Verdasco.

Del Potro installed as new tournament favourite

Federer's defeat has made the outright market a wide open affair, with Juan Martin Del Potro now installed as favourite, at a current [5.5], although there will be many players fancying their chances. It certainly hasn't harmed our outright selections, Kevin Anderson and Borna Coric, who are both now trading below pre-event prices.

The Argentinian, Del Potro, is the [1.47] market favourite in a tricky-looking match against Kei Nishikori, with the Japanese still searching for his peak level following returning to tour from injury issues. I make this a little short, but nothing particularly worth acting upon.

Chung improvement illustrated by short price tonight

The earlier matches on tonight's card do appear accurately priced by the market, with Hyeon Chung's dramatic improvement this year reflected in a [1.13] price for him to defeat Michael Mmoh, while Marin Cilic is similarly priced to get the better of Vasek Pospisil. Jared Donaldson and Filip Krajinovic are both fairly priced around the [1.70] mark to progress at the expense of Joao Sousa and Benoit Paire, respectively.

Dimitrov short against resurgent Chardy

It's in the later evening matches for European viewers that we find the value, according to my model. Grigor Dimitrov hasn't impressed outdoors on hard court for a while, winning 101.4% combined serve/return points in 2018, a figure that rises to just 103.1% in the last 12 months. Neither are top 10 levels, and makes it logical as to why I feel he's worth opposing quite often currently.

The Bulgarian takes on Jeremy Chardy tonight, and is [3.50] to get the win over the resurgent Frenchman, who seems to have regained previous top 30-40 levels in the last month or so, and I definitely wouldn't advocate taking the [1.39] on Dimitrov tonight.

Schwartzman likely to be more suited by conditions than Raonic

Following the diverse match-up between the big-server John Isner and the rapidly declining serve of Mikhail Youzhny, our selection comes in another rather contrasting match-up, between the extremely return-orientated Diego Schwartzman, and the big-server, Milos Raonic.

For this, Raonic is priced at [1.73] on the Exchange, but my model made this virtually level, pricing the Canadian at a bigger [1.96], with hard court data for the duo very similar indeed.

In addition, Schwartzman's fitness is much more of a given than Raonic's, and he's much more likely to prefer the medium-slow conditions at Crandon Park as well, so taking the [2.34] about the dimunitive Argentinian makes a great deal of sense tonight.


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