Menu

ATP Shanghai Masters Day Five Tips: Basilashvili can surprise market against Thiem

Swiss Tennis Player Roger Federer
Roger Federer is back on court against David Goffin tomorrow...
Join today
View market

Thursday's action at the Shanghai Masters sees all eight third round matches take place, and back to preview the schedule is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"I think Bash can compete on a quick hard court against Thiem and he's a market leading 11/10 with the Sportsbook to win a set here. This looks an excellent price considering my model has the two players much more closely matched than the market."

Isner somehow scuppers our first set tiebreak recommendation

It was all looking so good for another underdog first set tiebreak winner this morning in Shanghai with Lucas Pouille serving at 40-15 for the first set tiebreak. Somehow John Isner - not noted for his prowess on return, obviously - reeled off four consecutive return points to break the Frenchman and scupper our bet, which would clearly have been trading at extremely short prices with Pouille having two tiebreak points on serve against one of the worst returners on the entire tour.

However, these are the breaks that occur sometimes, and there's no option but to dust ourselves down and go again on Thursday. Unfortunately, there's no first set tiebreak opportunities, although there are some potential avenues worth discussing with all 16 players remaining in the tournament taking to the courts tomorrow.

Fognini and Bautista-Agut slight value as underdogs

In some of the earlier matches, Andy Murray's conqueror Fabio Fognini looks a little big at [2.80] against Karen Khachanov, while if in decent shape, Roberto Bautista-Agut shouldn't be underdog against Matteo Berrettini. I mentioned that Bautista-Agut retired in Beijing last week but he got past Reilly Opelka in straight sets on Wednesday morning, so can't be in too bad a condition.

Thiem can be pushed by Basilashvili

Several heavy favourites also look extremely over-rated by the market. I mentioned Dominic Thiem's potential fatigue prior to his win over Pablo Carreno-Busta, and he must back it up again tomorrow against Nikoloz Basilashvili, who enjoyed a day off today having played his round two match on Tuesday.

I think Bash can compete on a quick hard court against Thiem and he's a market leading 11/10 with the Sportsbook to win a set here. This looks an excellent price considering my model has the two players much more closely matched than the market does.

Tsitsipas can also be tested by Hurkacz

I may have mentioned a few times before - ok, numerous times - that I feel Thiem, and also Stefanos Tsitsipas, are rather over-rated by the market and I also think that the Greek man, Tsitsipas, is again over-rated for his meeting with one of the most improved players this season in Hubert Hurkacz. Tsitsipas is currently trading at [1.40] on the Exchange which looks short against an extremely competent player running at around 104% combined hold/break on hard court in the last 12 months.

The majority of the other matches on tomorrow's card feature heavy favourites, with Daniil Medvedev perhaps looking a touch short at [1.12] against Vasek Pospisil, whose numbers aren't bad at all since he returned to tour. Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are also heavy favourites, which are justified, against the aforementioned Isner, and David Goffin, respectively.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan Weston,

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles