The Shanghai Masters continues on Tuesday, with a mix of first and second round matches taking place, including a number of big names in action. Dan Weston is back to preview the card...
"My model has there being around a 57% chance of a first set tiebreak in what are likely to be quick conditions, and the over 12.5 games first set line with the Sportsbook looks like decent value at 11/8 (2.38 in decimal odds)."
Kecmanovic unable to grab a day two winner
Our Shanghai campaign unfortunately got off to a losing start with Miomir Kecmanovic unable to defeat Mikhail Kukushkin, and while the market moved in our favour - we beat the closing price pretty comfortably - Kecmanovic was unable to provide a Monday winner.
Murray pushed by Londero before Fognini clash
It was a mixed bag for Brits on day two with Cameron Norrie getting the better of Gilles Simon in relatively straightforward fashion, but Kyle Edmund's miserable season continued with a straight sets loss to Jeremy Chardy. Andy Murray was pushed by the Argentinian clay-courter, Juan Ignacio Londero, and lost the first set 6-2, but came through in three. Facing 10 break points on serve against such a limited player on the surface will be a big concern, although his 45% return points won percentage was a significant upgrade on recent return numbers.
Murray is one of many big names in action on day three, with the Scotsman a [2.22] underdog against Fabio Fognini in one of the later matches on Tuesday. Stats-wise, this looks about right - the level Murray has exhibited since his comeback is a little short of where Fognini has been on hard court this year, although the volatile Italian is unlikely to enjoy the quick conditions on display here. I can still remember his dreadful defeat and subsequent outburst as a [1.06] favourite against Chuhan Wang here in 2014.
Pospisil with chances against Sousa
One of the surprise results on day two was Vasek Pospisil's victory over Diego Schwartzman, and the Canadian is starting to get his level back after a long-term back injury. Tomorrow he faces Joao Sousa in a match where the market is finding it difficult to split the two players - I have Pospisil as a slight favourite, and shorter than the current [1.94] market line.
A few players looking slight value on day three
There isn't an abundance of value on the card tomorrow, and in my view, certainly not any major ricks on behalf of the market. Nikoloz Basilashvili looks a little generously priced at [1.76] against Benoit Paire, while Gael Monfils also looks to fit that bill at [1.60] against Hubert Hurkacz. Jan-Lennard Struff's recent run of losses is clearly priced into his [2.80] price against Matteo Berrettini.
As far as some of the heavy favourites go, it wouldn't surprise me if Zhe Li was able to emerge without a thrashing against Lucas Pouille, who continues to look over-rated, while it will be interesting to see if Albert Ramos can come anywhere near replicating his 2015 triumph here against Roger Federer. The Swiss legend was [1.03] that day but is available at a bigger [1.11] tomorrow.
Tiebreaks looking value in De Minaur v Isner
However, my recommendation comes in the opening match on the schedule, with Alex De Minaur a marginal [1.75] favourite to get the better of John Isner. I actually think De Minaur should be shorter here, but this isn't my play.
My model has there being around a 57% chance of a first set tiebreak in the quick conditions I've discussed, and the over 12.5 games first set line with the Sportsbook looks like decent value at 11/8 (2.38 in decimal odds). A 57% chance equates to a decimal price of 1.75, so getting odds against on an odds-on shot looks appealing in what looks essentially a mathematical discrepancy.
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