We have third round action at the Rogers Cup on Thursday evening. After a third consecutive winner last night, Dan Weston gives his thoughts on tonight's matches...
"Fognini has much better return data (and similar serve numbers) on hard court in the last 12 months, and my perception here is that Mannarino is a little over-rated here following a comprehensive win over Borna Coric in the early hours of this morning. "
Khachanov helps us hit a hat-trick this week
After two winners earlier on in the week, we went three from three last night in Canada with Karen Khachanov defeating Stan Wawrinka as an underdog, and deservedly so, winning 53% of total points in the match and creating seven break point chances to the three generated by the Swiss veteran.
We also saw a few big names exit the tournament, with Milos Raonic retiring after the second set against countryman Felix Auger-Aliassime, while John Isner was surprised in straight sets by Cristian Garin. In addition, Hubert Hurkacz - I said yesterday he had a decent chance - knocked out Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Hurkacz clash with Monfils difficult to profile
Hurkacz's reward is a third round clash tonight - one of the late night matches - against Gael Monfils, and the market has chalked up the Pole as a [1.77] favourite. I'm rather torn as to the value here - based on hold/break stats on hard court this year, I think Monfils should be favourite, but based on service/return points won data, there's more of a case for the current market pricing.
Fognini looking value against Mannarino
Given this difficulty, I'm moving on to another match with a view to a value recommendation today, and that's Fabio Fognini against Adrian Mannarino. It's Fognini who is favourite here, priced at [1.84] at the time of writing, and I think this is a decent price.
My model made this quite a bit shorter. Fognini has much better return data (and similar serve numbers) on hard court in the last 12 months, and my perception here is that Mannarino is a little over-rated here following a comprehensive win over Borna Coric in the early hours of this morning.
Mannarino's stats from that match are impressive but it's worth remembering that Coric came into the event with potential fitness issues, as I discussed several days ago, and I'm not keen to read too much into one match in isolation.
Numerous big names in action on day four
In other matches, Rafa Nadal and Daniil Medvedev are the heaviest favourites on the card, with Nadal just [1.08] to get past Guido Pella. Nadal was pushed yesterday by Dan Evans, who gave a good account of himself, while Medvedev was also victorious over British opposition last night, as he demolished Kyle Edmund for the loss of three games across two sets.
We also see a fascinating 'pick-em' type match between Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem, while yesterday's hero for us, Karen Khachanov, is a marginal favourite to get past Felix Auger-Aliassime. In addition, our outright pick, Alexander Zverev, is in action, with the German a [1.53] favourite to defeat Nikoloz Basilashvili this evening.
Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings
Back Fabio Fognini at [1.84] to beat Adrian Mannarino