ATP Rogers Cup Day Five Tips: Monfils can convert underdog value against Bautista-Agut

Spanish Tennis Player Roberto Bautista-Agut
Roberto Bautista-Agut looks poor value tonight...
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The Rogers Cup moves into the quarter-final stage tonight and, after grabbing another winner last night, Dan Weston previews the action...

"The market is potentially scared of Monfils following retirement in his last tournament, at Wimbledon, but he's got better as the tournament has progressed here and his hard court data this year, and the last 12 months, is better than Bautista-Agut's, with a decent advantage on return."

Fognini is fourth consecutive winner

Fabio Fognini provided our fourth consecutive victory last night with a straight-sets triumph over Adrian Mannarino, winning 55% of points in the match and creating 12 break points to the Frenchman's four. It was a deserved victory which would have been even more straightforward if Fognini hadn't blown a set and break lead twice, including serving for the match at *5-4 in the second set.

Fognini's 'reward' for that victory is a meeting with Rafa Nadal, who is [1.16] to get past the Italian. Despite this, Fognini has won four of their 15 head to head matches, which doesn't sound that impressive but is markedly better than the vast majority of non-elite players can boast.

However, Fognini has struggled badly on serve in meetings with Nadal, winning around 55% of points on serve and holding just over 60% of the time, and this simply won't get the job done on the vast majority of occasions - he's probably been flattered by the head to head scoreline.

Monfils potential value against Bautista-Agut

Yesterday I also discussed the potential of Gael Monfils to get past Hubert Hurkacz. The enigmatic Frenchman delivered, 6-4 6-0, and now faces Roberto Bautista-Agut. I'm surprised to see the Spaniard as a [1.68] favourite.

The market is potentially scared of Monfils following retirement in his last tournament, at Wimbledon, but he's got better as this tournament has progressed and his hard court data for the last 12 months is better than Bautista-Agut's, with a decent advantage on return.

With this in mind, I feel Monfils is worth chancing at [2.46] here and he's today's recommendation.

Zverev under-valued for meeting with Khachanov

Our outright pick, Alexander Zverev, has got to this stage without really impressing, and last night he needed a final set tiebreak against Nikoloz Basilashvili to get revenge for his semi-final defeat to the Georgian in Hamburg.

Tonight he faces Karen Khachanov, and the market is finding it difficult to split the duo, pricing Khachanov as the marginal [1.98] favourite. I'm surprised by this line - even in what has been a relatively mediocre season for Zverev, he's won a higher percentage of service and return points than the Russian - and I make Zverev some value here.

Should Zverev convert this value tonight, the outright would likely shorten markedly and we can reassess tomorrow if necessary, although I'd expect him to be value against Dominic Thiem if the Austrian gets past Daniil Medvedev this evening.

Medvedev justifiably favourite over Thiem

In that match, Medvedev is the [1.69] favourite on the Exchange, which looks about right. The Russian has dramatically improved this season and is now running at just over 110% combined hold/break on hard court in the last 12 months - a figure which Thiem cannot boast. Medvedev looks justified as favourite here, despite Thiem's higher profile reputation.


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