ATP Cincinnati Masters Day Three Tips: Wawrinka short for Dimitrov repeat clash

Bulgarian Tennis Player Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor Dimitrov should enjoy conditions today...
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The action continues at the Cincinnati Masters on Tuesday, so Dan Weston is back with his betting preview of the standout matches...

"Dimitrov's record in quick conditions is strong - Wawrinka's is not - and despite a tough year for the Bulgarian this year, his numbers on hard court aren't hugely dissimilar to Wawrinka's."

Murray defeated on return to singles action

There are 12 matches on today's card in Cincinnati, with nine remaining first round matches played earlier in the evening, before three second round matches - featuring both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, among others - taking place in the early hours for European viewers.

Andy Murray was defeated 6-4 6-4 last night by Richard Gasquet and, while Murray's serve numbers weren't a disaster, he struggled on return. As the Scotsman was previously rather return-orientated, this would be a concern and a big area where potential improvement is required. Murray has decided not to play the US Open but we may see plenty of him as the season draws to its conclusion.

Thompson unlucky in defeat to Nishioka

Our pick yesterday, the underdog Jordan Thompson, was narrowly defeated in three sets by Yoshihito Nishioka and stats would indicate that the Australian was rather unlucky, saving only one of six break points on serve and only converting four of 12 on return.

If we get offered underdog prices on a player with the advance knowledge that they will have six more break point chances than their opponent, this will be an excellent long-term proposition, so we must chalk it up to negative variance.

After a couple of positive variance winners last week, we can't be too worried about such a loss and of course, must trust the process rather than short-term/individual match results.

Wawrinka looking short against Dimitrov

Today there are some interesting match-ups. The aforementioned Djokovic and Federer are understandably overwhelming favourites over Sam Querrey and Juan Ignacio Londero - a bizarre wild card - respectively, but on the whole, today's schedule looks reasonably competitive.

Last week in Cincinnati, Stan Wawrinka got the better of Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 6-4 in the first round, with a market price just north of the [1.50] mark. They also met in the French Open first round, which Wawrinka won courtesy of three consecutive tiebreaks, and the Swiss was priced around [1.40] that day in what was possibly a better match-up for him.

On a quick hard court, I'm surprised to see Wawrinka similarly priced to that French Open clash, with his current market price being [1.42]. Dimitrov's record in quick conditions is strong - Wawrinka's is not - and despite a tough year for the Bulgarian, his record on hard court isn't hugely dissimilar to Wawrinka's.

The handicap market is still forming but we should be able to get around [1.80] about Dimitrov with a 3.5 game head start, and I like this spot.

Verdasco surprisingly underdog against Paire

Fernando Verdasco turns 36 in November and recent results could suggest he's now on the wane. However, opponent Benoit Paire's record on hard courts isn't great - either short term or long term - and I'm wondering if the market is overvaluing the inconsistent Frenchman based on his improved clay court levels. Verdasco is the underdog here, priced at [2.16], and I'm not at all convinced the market has it right there.

In other matches, if fit, Gael Monfils should have too much for Frances Tiafoe, although the market line of [1.93] suggests that most people think his ankle problem will be a considerable issue, while even on a quick hard court, Pablo Carreno-Busta could test John Isner as a slight underdog.

We also see Daniil Medvedev face Kyle Edmund after demolishing the Brit en route to the final last week in Montreal, and the Russian - now into the top ten - is priced similarly to last week's match, at [1.61].


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