ATP Indian Wells Day Five: Kecmanovic can double up with win over Djere

Indian Wells Tennis Stadium
Indian Wells plays host to eight ATP matches in the third round tonight...
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The men's tournament at Indian Wells moves towards the third round stage this evening, Dan Weston returns to give his best bets and tips...

"I've already discussed Kecmanovic's upside on Saturday, as he was our recommendation to beat Maximilian Marterer then, and I like the price about the young Serb again this evening."

Fognini brings us first loser at Indian Wells

Last night bought about our first loser of the tournament with Fabio Fognini being usurped by Radu Albot. After a dominant first set for the Moldovan, Fognini had his chances in the second before being eclipsed in a tiebreak. Despite the loss, we did beat the market, with Fognini's price contracting between the preview release time and the match start - going off around the [2.10] mark after being recommended at [2.22].

Big names accurately priced by the markets

Moving on to tonight's matches, there are eight on the schedule as the third round commences. With a number of big names featuring, heavy favourites are plentiful, and it will probably suffice to say that I find Milos Raonic, Alexander Zverev, Gael Monfils and Novak Djokovic all accurately priced by the market this evening.

This is also pretty much the case for Dominic Thiem, who takes an dominant head to head record into his match-up with Gilles Simon and the [1.42] about the Austrian to make round four looks about right as well.

Gunneswaran capable of testing Karlovic

This leaves us three matches where there isn't an overwhelming favourite, and it wouldn't be a shock to see Prajnesh Gunneswaran give Ivo Karlovic a tough match. The man from India is certainly on an upward ability curve - something that cannot be said for the veteran Croat who is, in reality, towards the end of his career - and I make Gunneswaran only a marginal underdog here, largely based on his strong stats from the Challenger Tour.

Market strong on Auger-Aliassime

In addition, I have the meeting between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Yoshihito Nishioka as around an even-money encounter, with the Canadian prodigy a little over-rated by the market, based on my numbers.

Truthfully, this isn't a surprise. He's just beaten Stefanos Tsitsipas in impressive fashion as well as having a solid Golden Swing on clay in February. Auger-Aliassime is almost certainly going to be a top player in the future, but I'm looking at now, and I feel that the market has over-reacted a little following that win over Tsitsipas - who he also performed well against in juniors.

Nishioka has also got a big win under his belt here, getting the better of Roberto Bautista-Agut on Saturday as a heavy underdog, and looks a little generously priced at odds of [2.36].

Kecmanovic can double up for us against Djere

However, the match I want to focus on for today's recommendation is Laslo Djere against Miomir Kecmanovic. I've already discussed Kecmanovic's upside on Saturday, as he was our recommendation to beat Maximilian Marterer then and I like the price about the young Serb again this evening.

He's available at [1.94] on the Exchange to defeat Djere, and I think this is very solid value against a player who does his best work on clay. On hard and indoor hard from Indian Wells 2018 onwards in main draw matches, Djere is 3-9 and is running at just over 92% combined hold/break percentage - very mediocre numbers indeed.

Conversely, Kecmanovic's hard court numbers in Challengers over the last year already equate to close to 100% mark, when I run them through my Challenger to ATP conversion algorithm, and with this mind, the lucky loser from qualifying looks like a worthwhile pick to make the fourth round and face the winner of the Auger-Aliassime and Nishioka meeting for a place in the quarter-finals.


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