Quarter-final action at The Indian Wells Masters concludes tonight, with two matches deciding who will join Borna Coric and Roger Federer in the semi-finals. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, checks out this evening's schedule...
"Perhaps given this marginal value and a strong projected hold percentage in the high 80s, we can consider favouring the big American, Querrey, with some in-play trading strategies when serving."
Coric and Federer progress on day eight
Last night's action in California saw Borna Coric edge past Kevin Anderson in a third-set tiebreak - a big achievement considering his disastrous first set and then overcoming a break deficit in the decider - while Roger Federer, after a competitive first set, saw off the challenge of Hyeon Chung rather more comfortably in the second. This means that Coric is the latest young prospect to face the Swiss legend this week, with Federer a heavy favourite to progress to the final.
Querrey marginal value for Raonic clash
Tonight's quarter-finals are scheduled for rather more sociable times for European viewers, with Sam Querrey facing Milos Raonic at 19:00 UK time, and Juan Martin Del Potro's match with Philipp Kohlschreiber due to start two hours later.
In the first match-up, two serve-orientated players combine in what is likely to be a tight clash with few breaks, and the Exchange market is currently slightly on the side of Querrey, pricing him at [1.86] at the time of writing. My model made the American marginally shorter, at [1.77], but this would require a market price in the low 1.90s to consider a value recommendation.
Trading strategies can be considered
Perhaps given this marginal value and a strong projected hold percentage in the high 80s, we can consider favouring the big American, Querrey, with some in-play trading strategies when serving. Backing him during service games at 0-30 and 15-40 caps our risk to an extent, and we can look to clear some liability or hedge at 30-30, 40-40 or end of game, depending on our tolerance to risk.
Del Potro with dominant head to head over Kohlschreiber
Del Potro is a solid [1.27] favourite to get past Kohlschreiber, and this also looks about right, with the Argentine improving quite considerably in the last few months - his service points won percentage of 67.2%, and return data of 38.2% (combined 105.4%) makes him a top 10 player again, and translates to a combined hold/break percentage of 112.8%, again well into top 10 territory.
The duo have quite a strange head to head series, with Del Potro leading it 6-2, but Kohlschreiber taking the last two. However, in both cases, Del Potro was ranked outside the top 200, while being on the comeback trail following long-term injury, so it's difficult to give much credence to those couple of wins for the German.
Certainly, I factored in this as more of a dominant historical head to head in Del Potro's favour, and this was a contributory reason as to why my model agreed with the current market line.
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Back Sam Querrey when losing 0-30 or 15-40 on serve, clearing some liability or hedging at 30-30, 40-40 or end of game