The Indian Wells Masters continues with two quarter-final matches on day eight. Previewing the matches on tonight's schedule is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...
"Chung gets another chance to demonstrate that he can compete with elite level opponents today, but as can be seen by the market prices, it is unlikely that he'll come away with the victory."
Baghdatis pulls out to give Raonic a walkover
Yesterday's selection, Marcos Baghdatis, didn't end up taking to the court, giving opponent Milos Raonic a walkover, so with that recommendation void, Raonic faces Sam Querrey tomorrow night in the last eight, and Juan Martin Del Potro takes on Phillip Kohlschreiber in the other match on Friday evening.
Anderson with a 100% set record against Coric
Prior to these, however, we have the small matter of Borna Coric against Kevin Anderson, and Roger Federer v Hyeon Chung, with the former match taking place at 20:00 UK time, prior to the latter, which is one of the night owls - scheduled to start not before 2am.
Anderson takes a 3-0 head to head lead into his match with the younger Coric, and with Coric ranked relatively similarly in all encounters, this definitely has some relevance - it's not as though Anderson took advantage of a weaker opponent when he was ranked lower and trying to break through onto the main tour.
With this in mind, the market pricing looks pretty realistic. Anderson is a current [1.58] on the Exchange, with my model pricing him similarly at [1.64], despite the fact that their combined hold/break percentages on hard court in the last 12 months are close, at 108.3% for Coric and 108.8% for Anderson - there is quite a weighting towards the fact that Anderson hasn't dropped a set in these prior encounters.
The match-up is likely to be quite serve orientated, with projected hold percentages in the mid 80s, and I'm not anticipating a plethora of service breaks, even considering the medium-slow conditions. If conditions were quicker, it would have higher expected value to look at in-play strategies to favour players when serving.
Federer accurately priced for Chung quarter-final
In a repeat match-up of the Australian Open semi-final, Federer is [1.18] to get past the rapidly improving Chung, who didn't do himself justice in that match, suffering from blisters. Chung gets another chance to demonstrate that he can compete with elite level opponents today, but as can be seen by the market prices, it is unlikely that he'll come away with the victory.
My model priced Federer at [1.25], so the reflected value on Chung wasn't enough to consider recommending him in some way, shape or form. If I had to recommend a bet tonight, it would be Chung on the +4.5 game handicap at odds just shy even money, but there isn't enough expected value for me to consider such an option at the current market prices.
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