Indian Wells Masters Day Seven: Baghdatis can cover handicap in Raonic clash

Argentinian Tennis player Juan Martin Del Potro
Juan Martin Del Potro is being respected by the markets currently...
Join today View market

Day seven at the Indian Wells Masters sees all eight clashes in the last 16 take place, and following two winners last night, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, is back to preview the schedule...

"Priced between [1.40] and [1.70] in best of three set matches on hard court since the start of 2016, Raonic has covered the current -3.5 game handicap line just four times in 12 outings, so with the value on Baghdatis, looking at Baghdatis +3.5 games at the available [1.69] makes a lot of sense."

Ferrer and Lopez provide winners in last night's action

In the third round matches last night, we went two from two with David Ferrer - much to the surprise of many on Twitter - covering the game handicap in defeat against Juan Martin Del Potro, while underdog Feliciano Lopez progressed in three sets against Jack Sock.

Del Potro again a touch short tonight

Today's fourth round matches see the aforementioned Del Potro face his countryman, Leonardo Mayer, in one of the later matches on the schedule. Again, the more illustrious Argentine looks a little short and currently, you can get just [1.16] about Del Potro on the Exchange. However, it's worth noting that Mayer has a pretty mediocre historical record for covering the same +4.5 game handicap line when a heavy underdog on hard court, which reduces my enthusiasm for a similar position to yesterday's Ferrer recommendation.

Baghdatis value to cover game handicap against injury-prone Raonic

The other late match sees Marcos Baghdatis meet Milos Raonic, with the Canadian trading at a current [1.52] on the Exchange. This looks a little short to me - my model priced him quite a bit bigger - particularly given his injury problems, and the qualifier, Baghdatis, is still competent enough to cause Raonic a lot of issues.

Priced between [1.40] and [1.70] in best of three set matches on hard court since the start of 2016, Raonic has covered the current -3.5 game handicap line just four times in 12 outings, so with the value on Baghdatis, looking at Baghdatis +3.5 games at the available [1.69] makes a lot of sense.

Chung and Coric priced defensively this evening

In the earlier matches, Hyeon Chung is getting a lot of market respect in recent matches and looks a bit defensively priced at [1.36] against Pablo Cuevas, while the same can be said for another young prospect, Borna Coric. The Croatian talent is [1.47] against another young player with potential, in Taylor Fritz, and Fritz looks the value as an underdog here.

Anderson, Querrey and Federer among remaining favourites

The remaining matches on tonight's card look accurately priced. Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Phillip Kohlschreiber both have mediocre return data of late, but the German, Kohlschreiber, deserves his favourite status, while Kevin Anderson takes a 3-0 head to head lead into his match-up with Pablo Carreno-Busta. The big-serving South African is [1.39] to progress, at the time of writing.

Home favourite, Sam Querrey, is a similar price to get past one of our heroes from last night, Feliciano Lopez, while Roger Federer - now the overwhelming tournament favourite - is perceived by the market as virtually guaranteed to beat Jeremy Chardy. The Swiss legend is trading at [1.05] on the Exchange at the moment, and my model found it difficult to disagree to a major extent.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Join today View market

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles