Indian Wells Masters Day Ten: Coric unlikely to be outclassed against Federer

Swiss tennis player Roger Federer
Roger Federer may not have things all his own way tonight...
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It's men's singles semi-final day at the Indian Wells Masters tonight, and our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, returns to preview the matches...

"In 2018, Coric has only lost on three occasions, winning 64.9% of service points and 42.7% of return points, and this combined 107.6% percentage is of top ten level."

Raonic and Del Potro needing three to progress

Three sets were required in both of last nights men's quarter-finals, with Milos Raonic edging past Sam Querrey in the decider, and Juan Martin Del Potro fighting back from a set down to progress past Phillip Kohlschreiber.

Coric starting to justify high potential level

This duo meet in the second semi-final this evening, scheduled to take place not before 19:30 UK time, but in advance of this, at 18:00, Roger Federer takes on Borna Coric, with the young Croatian talent now starting to justify the potential that he displayed when breaking through on the Challenger Tour several years ago.

Indeed, such was the brilliance of Coric's data at that stage of his career I had little hesitation in predicting that he'd reach elite level in the future, and while his ranking currently is standing just inside the top 50, even a defeat tonight will considerably improve it.

Coric 2018 data of top ten level

In 2018, Coric has only lost on three occasions, winning 64.9% of service points and 42.7% of return points, and this combined 107.6% percentage is of top ten level. It also illustrates how Federer (74.2% and 41.4% respectively, in the same time period) might not have it all his own way tonight, despite still being the better player by some distance.

My model priced Federer at [1.22] to make tomorrow's final, and this is a fair bit bigger than the [1.11] about the Swiss legend on the Exchange currently. The handicap market is still forming on the Exchange, but Coric +4.5 games is 11/10 with the Sportsbook, and that's an option worth considering this evening.

Del Potro price influenced by Raonic fitness doubts

In the second semi-final, Del Potro is favoured by the market, at [1.54], to defeat Raonic, and if it wasn't for the fact that Raonic is still on the comeback trail following long-term injuries, the [2.84] about the Canadian big-server would be something to contemplate.

Certainly, winning 69.2% of service points and 37.9% on return this week in California signals a return to Raonic's best - it's not dissimilar to his 2016 data, for example - and if he can maintain such a level tonight, he will represent value at this price, in what is likely to be a tight match, determined by very few service breaks, and quite possibly, tiebreaks.

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