It's day three of the Cincinnati Masters on Tuesday, and with a number of big names in action, our tennis columnist Dan Weston, is back to preview the action...
"Fucsovics has had a tough couple of months, following injury picked up at Halle in June, but he looked more at the races last week, with a win over Joao Sousa before being defeated by Wawrinka despite creating more break point chances and winning more points in the match."
Wawrinka still with plenty of improvement required
We went one from two with yesterday's recommendations, with Denis Shapovalov sneaking past Frances Tiafoe in a very tight next-gen battle, but Diego Schwartzman falling short against Stan Wawrinka, whose match stats - particularly on return - do look improved from last week. I still feel Wawrinka has a lot to work on to get even to a top 30 level, so it will be interesting to see his market pricing in the near future.
Today we see 13 matches on the men's side of the tournament, with 10 first-round matches concluding that particular round, as well as three second-round clashes as some of the big names on tour begin their campaigns, following their first-round byes.
Federer looking a little short after absence from tour
One of these is the tournament favourite, Roger Federer, who does look a little short at [1.09] against Peter Gojowczyk, who is a competent hard courter. With Federer likely to be a little rusty - he hasn't played a competitive match for a month - it wouldn't surprise me at all if Gojowczyk could keep this close, at the very least.
Murray still with several gears to find
The other two matches feature our hero from yesterday, Shapovalov, as he takes on Kyle Edmund (the Brit is correctly priced as a marginal [1.87] favourite) and Lucas Pouille - who ousted Andy Murray yesterday - against Leonardo Mayer. Pouille starts at [1.83], and it's worth disecting the match data from his win over the Scotsman last night.
Murray has been quoted as suggesting he needs to find an extra 10-15% to win these type of match-ups, and in a topsy-turvy match, one of the more intelligent and self-aware players on tour looks to be about right.
Pouille created two more break point chances and won just four more points in the match, so if Murray could find that extra gear, he would look to be able to get towards a top 10-15 level. However, there would then still be another gear to find before he would get back to somewhere near his previous best, and it will be fascinating to see how the market evaluates his US Open chances - I suspect he will be a touch over-rated.
Question marks over several players for the first round
Back to today's action, there are some decent-looking match-ups but also players with a ton of question marks over them. Hyeon Chung pulled out of the Rogers Cup last week but looks fairly priced at [1.71] against Jack Sock, who has been awful this year, while Philipp Kohlschreiber's condition after getting married recently is anyone's guess.
Even in quick conditions, which opponent Marius Copil loves, if Kohlschreiber turns up in any semblance of nick, he'd look backable at [1.80].
Fucsovics value as slight favourite against Hurkacz
One of these closer match-ups is where I feel there is some value, with Marton Fucsovics priced at [1.71] against Hubert Hurkacz, a qualifier.
Fucsovics has had a tough couple of months, following injury picked up at Halle in June, but he looked more at the races last week, with a win over Joao Sousa before being defeated by Wawrinka despite creating more break point chances and winning more points in the match.
If the Hungarian can maintain that level, and indeed, the level he displayed prior to that injury, he should be too good for Hurkacz, even though the Polish 21 year old is rapidly improving. Statistically, Fucsovics has a decent edge, and I like his price today.
Market defensive over Tsitsipas chances
In other action, it will be interesting to see how Rogers Cup runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas backs up an arduous campaign last week, and the market is defensive about his chances of beating David Goffin, with the Belgian a [1.66] favourite.
We also see Nick Kyrgios take to the courts, facing home player Denis Kudla, while Karen Khachanov should be too good in quick conditions against Albert Ramos. There's also an exciting next-gen match-up with Borna Coric taking on Daniil Medvedev. Coric's statistical edge on hard courts justifies the [1.58] market price, so the Croatian prospect is favoured by the market to get revenge on Medvedev for winning at Wimbledon last month.
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