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Shanghai Masters Day 3 Preview: Edmund can compound Cilic misery

Marin Cilic was bageled by Adrian Mannarino on Saturday...
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The Shanghai Masters 1000 moves onto day three on Tuesday morning, and with 15 matches on the card, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, runs through the action...


"Given that Cilic hasn't overly impressed since being injured in the Wimbledon final and was bageled by Adrian Mannarino in Tokyo on Saturday, I'm shocked to see him as short as [ ] against Edmund here."

Expected tiebreaks materialise between Lopez and Karlovic


Our Shanghai Masters campaign got off to a successful start with Feliciano Lopez and Ivo Karlovic playing the expected tiebreak, not just in the opening set but in the second as well, with the Spaniard continuing Karlovic's recent tiebreak misery by taking both of them to win in straight sets.


Tiebreaks again likely in several early matches


There's an abundance of action on day three and tiebreaks are again likely in two matches - the early clash between Dusan Lajovic and John Isner, and later on in the schedule, between two relatively serve-orientated players in the shape of Steve Johnson, and our pre-tournament selection, Nick Kyrgios.

In the early action, it wouldn't be a shock if Lajovic, who hasn't been in poor form of late, was able to push Isner even with the fast conditions suiting the American big-server, while if Aljaz Bedene is fit - he retired last week - then he should make a mockery about the [2.30] available against the Italian clay-courter, Paolo Lorenzi.


Market over-reacting to Sock's recent 'form'


It's in these early matches that I find a match where I feel prices are considerably out of line, with Jack Sock facing Alexandr Dolgopolov. A few defeats in a row have seen the market over-react and price Sock as the [2.18] underdog against Dolgopolov, whose hard court record is very average indeed in the last 12 months.

I'm not overly fussed about recent 'form', and Sock's defeats have been close - four of the five from Montreal onwards have been in final sets - and against a flaky opponent in the shape of Dolgopolov, I can't have him as underdog here.


Zverev and Gasquet some value on day three


The German duo of Mischa Zverev and Jan-Lennard Struff should both enjoy the quick conditions, and I feel that the less illustrious Zverev brother represents some value at [1.70] to progress, although he's been infuriatingly inconsistent himself of late.

In other matches, I'm surprised to see Richard Gasquet priced as big as [1.86] to get the better of the Korean youngster, Hyeon Chung, although Chung has huge upside both from age and his disastrous break point stats, and in the late match on the schedule, Kyle Edmund could spring a surprise against Marin Cilic.


Cilic far from his best in recent matches


The Brit, Edmund, has had a solid year on his best surface while Cilic has underwhelmed on hard court this year, winning just nine of 16 matches.

Given that Cilic hasn't overly impressed since being injured in the Wimbledon final and was bageled by Adrian Mannarino in Tokyo on Saturday, I'm shocked to see him as short as [1.41] against Edmund here.


Recommended Bets

Back Jack Sock at [2.18] to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov
Back Kyle Edmund at [3.25] to beat Marin Cilic


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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings


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