After predicting a 2-0 David Ferrer win in the semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Masters on Saturday, tennis expert Sean Calvert is sticking with the Spaniard in today's final..
"I suspect that Ferrer will be too experienced and will come through a tight one.."
Saturday's bet on David Ferrer to beat Michael Llodra in straight sets proved to be a good one as the Spaniard eased home after a shaky start to earn his place in the final.
And thanks to Jerzy Janowicz's earlier victory over another Frenchman, Gilles Simon, we have a Masters 1000 final featuring a 46.045/1 shot and a 1000.0 shot at the start of the week.
It's very much a David v Goliath encounter, with the 5'9" Ferrer taking on the 6'8" Pole and it seems to me that this is where Jerzy's dream run this week draws to a close.
Ferrer has yet to face Janowicz, but he has won his last 13 matches in a row against players who are 6'4" and above in height, so he knows how to deal with the bombs that will come his way from the qualifier's racquet.
Fitness will surely be an issue as well, with Janowicz having played 16 sets already this week. Those are tough numbers at this level.
By contrast, Ferrer has played just nine sets and although he had a long week in Valencia last week his supreme fitness will see him through today pretty comfortably.
The world number five has won two of his three meetings with Ivo Karlovic and four of his five against John Isner, which is the only comparison I can find with Janowicz, but the Pole moves much better than those two.
I have a feeling that the nerves might hit him today and I'd really want a bigger price that 3.211/5 before betting on Jerzy, although him winning a set is certainly a distinct possibility.
Incredibly, Janowicz is set to rise to number 26 in the world from his efforts here this week and he looks like he's here to stay for the foreseeable future, which is a breath of fresh air for the men's game.
But for today I suspect that Ferrer will be too experienced and will come through a tight one, with a 2-1 victory for the Spaniard worth an investment at a price of 4.3100/30
Back Ferrer to win 2-1 at 4.3100/30