After predicting that Andy Murray might struggle against Polish qualifier Jerzy Janowicz yesterday, Sean Calvert takes a look at tonight's big match at the BNP Paribas Masters..
"I think it will be tight and it could go either way, so the 2.407/5 about a three set encounter is the call.."
Thursday was another drama filled day at the Palais Omnisports and a profitable one for this column.
I said that Andy Murray might not have things all his own way against giant Pole Jerzy Janowicz in their third round encounter and so it proved, as Janowicz came back from match point down to stun the tournament favourite.
Whether Murray was really that bothered with the O2 on the horizon is debatable but it was an easy win for my handicap bet on Janowicz and for my portfolio of outsiders that I advised pre-tournament.
It might have been even better had Kei Nishikori and Radek Stepanek not both withdrawn through injury, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych backers have done well.
And hopefully Tsonga can take another step towards making us a profit today when he takes on David Ferrer at around 6.30pm UK time this evening.
Perhaps surprisingly, this pair of top-10 stars have rarely faced each other over the years and this will be only their third meeting at tour level - their first two matches were shared with Ferrer winning on clay in Rome and Tsonga on the grass of Wimbledon last year.
I must admit that I expected Ferrer to offer only a token effort here this week with the World Tour Finals and Davis Cup Final looming large on the horizon, but perhaps he's been motivated by the possibility of winning a Masters 1000 and finishing the year as top ranked Spaniard.
If you think the latter scenario is the most likely then Ferrer probably represents a bit of value at around 2.3411/8 in the match odds market, but to me this match has three sets written all over it.
Tsonga's returning is always a worry for his backers and both of his matches have been struggles that have resulted in three tie breaks in six sets played.
He was unable to create a single break point against Nico Almagro last night and these slow courts aren't really in his favour in this match up if Ferrer is at his tireless best.
The Bercy crowd might just pull Tsonga through this one, but I think it will be tight and it could go either way, so the 2.407/5 about a three set encounter is the call.
Back three sets in Tsonga v Ferrer at 2.407/5