Paris Masters Day 3 Preview: Chardy likely to be a vulnerable front-runner in Bautista-Agut clash

Roberto Bautista-Agut has excellent break deficit recovery data...
Roberto Bautista-Agut has excellent break deficit recovery data...

Wednesday's action at the Paris Masters sees 13 second round matches take place, as the few big names in the event make their first appearance. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, is back to run the rule over today's schedule...

"Given this, and the fact that Bautista-Agut has an excellent break deficit recovery percentage - he’s recovered almost 50% of first breaks in sets across the last couple of years, well in excess of the ATP Tour mean - we can look to oppose Chardy if trading below starting price and leading by a break, looking to trade out for profit should Bautista-Agut break back."

Zverev, Nadal and Del Potro begin Paris campaigns on day three

At a tournament hit badly by withdrawals, the big-name seeds start their Paris Masters campaigns on day three, with Alexander Zverev, Rafa Nadal and Juan Marin Del Potro among those in action. All are correctly priced, heavy sub 1.3030/100 favourites, against Robin Haase, Hyeon Chung and Joao Sousa, respectively.

Schwartzman clash with Isner the ultimate clash in playing styles

In fact, this correctly priced theme is predominant throughout today's card, with only one player - Diego Schwartzman - highlighted as slight value as a very narrow underdog at 2.021/1 against the big-server, John Isner, in a match-up where there is a huge contrast of playing styles.

The diminutive, and very return orientated Argentine, Schwartzman, and running through Schwartzman's record against players with serve percentages in the high 80%s or better, away from clay, sees losses this year against Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic with wins against an injury-affected Marin Cilic (at the US Open) and Reilly Opelka.

Those defeats all came in straight sets and I'm not entirely convinced that Schwartzman has the tools to disarm big servers, although he was an underdog in all of those defeats.

Mannarino fitting the vulnerable front-runner dynamic in interesting match with Goffin

Looking at the other matches on the schedule, the match-up between David Goffin in the evening clash looks interesting, with Adrian Mannarino a 2.982/1 underdog against the Belgian, who hasn't entirely convinced since he won Shenzhen and Tokyo at the start of the month.

Losses against Gilles Simon, Stefanos Tsitsipas and a more understandable schooling at the hands of Roger Federer ensued, and Mannarino isn't necessarily without a chance here, although he does statistically fit into a vulnerable front-runner dynamic.

Chardy the most vulnerable front-runner on today's schedule

This is also the case for Jeremy Chardy, who has a very low 68% projected hold percentage against Roberto Bautista-Agut, with the Spaniard a 1.434/9 favourite to get the better of Chardy, whose record this year is not impressive at all - the 30 year old Frenchman has won 64.4% of service points and just 35.2% on return.

Given this, and the fact that Bautista-Agut has an excellent break deficit recovery percentage - he's recovered almost 50% of first breaks in sets across the last couple of years, well in excess of the ATP Tour mean - we can look to oppose Chardy if trading below starting price and leading by a break, looking to trade out for profit should Bautista-Agut break back.

The vast majority of other matches today look quite competitive, with most featuring favourites priced over 1.501/2, with just Marin Cilic (against Borna Coric) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who faces veteran countryman Julien Benneteau in what looks just about the most serve orientated clash on the schedule, remaining favourites priced shorter than this mark.


Recommended Bets

Lay Jeremy Chardy when a break up and trading below starting price against Roberto Bautista-Agut


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