ATP Shanghai Masters Day Six Tips: Federer with solid statistical edge over Zverev

Swiss Tennis Player Roger Federer
Roger Federer looks some value to get past Alexander Zverev...
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Action continues at the Shanghai Masters on Friday with matches now at the quarter-final stage. Joining us again with his thoughts on tomorrow's matches is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"Even though Zverev’s results have improved over the last three months, Federer still has over a 6% edge on combined service/return points won on hard court across that time period."

Thiem's break point performance helps defeat Basilashvili

It's been a fairly trying tournament for us this week in Shanghai with Nikoloz Basilashvili unable to win a set against Dominic Thiem - saving just two of six break points on his serve going a long way to deciding that one - but again we beat the market, with Bash +1.5 sets going off a shade over even money across the general market.

Tsitsipas again needing to overperform at key points

Friday's quarter-finals feature three heavy favourites - around the [1.40] mark or shorter, with Novak Djokovic likely to go off the shortest. The world number one is currently trading at [1.18] to get the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas, who just about got past Hubert Hurkacz in their last 16 match earlier today.

Some people on social media have mentioned Tsitsipas' 'clutch' ability and if such a phenomenon exists, it was on display against the improving Polish man, given that Tsitsipas saved four of his five break points, and converted one of his two - plus won the final set tiebreak. Hurkacz actually won one more point in the match.

The market suggests, and my model agrees, that it's going to take more than this to beat Djokovic tomorrow, and Novak is likely going to have a real off-day if Tsitsipas is to cause a shock result.

Medvedev again looking a little short-priced

Marginally bigger than Djokovic is Daniil Medvedev, who was pushed well by Vasek Pospisil in their match earlier, winning 7-6 7-5, and another victor despite facing more break points on serve. I suspected he looked a little short against the Canadian as an overwhelming favourite, and even though his price is a little bigger at [1.23] against Fabio Fognini tomorrow, this still looks a few ticks on the short side to me.

Numbers like Federer for Zverev clash

Those two clashes form the basis of the early schedule, with action getting underway at 530 UK time, but the second two quarter-finals take place around lunchtime, with Roger Federer looking fairly generously priced at [1.54] against Alexander Zverev.

Zverev has had a fairly tough year compared to most people's expectations, and statistically, Federer has around a 6% combined edge on service/return points won on hard court this year with that advantage coming via much better service numbers. Overall, the hard court numbers for the duo make the market prices out of line to an extent, with my model going [1.37] on the Swiss legend, and that's not even taking into account his liking for quick conditions - which are on display in Shanghai.

Even though Zverev's results have improved over the last three months, Federer still has over a 6% edge on combined service/return points won on hard court across that time period, and the -2.5 game line on Federer is likely to settle around the [1.90] mark, which I think is some reasonable value tomorrow.

Berrettini not without a chance for underdog win over Thiem

In the final match on the card, Dominic Thiem again looks a little over-rated as he faces one of the most improved players of 2019, in Matteo Berrettini. The Italian does have a little to prove on hard court still, but as I've said before, Thiem in quick conditions during the later stages of the season has not been a recipe for success, and Berrettini certainly isn't without a decent chance at [2.72] against the Austrian tomorrow afternoon.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan Weston,

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