Menu

ATP Rogers Cup Day Two Tips: Albot underdog value to get past Simon

American Tennis Player John Isner
John Isner could be tested by Jordan Thompson tonight...
Join today

Dan Weston picked up a day one winner and now reckons Radu Albot is the value of day two in Montreal...

"In main tour hard court matches, Albot has a higher (102.1%) combined serve/return points won percentage in the last 12 months than Simon (101.2%) so it seems apparent that the market is influenced by the reputation of the two players rather than the current reality."

Basilashvili gets Rogers Cup off to a winning start

We got our Rogers Cup campaign off to a solid start yesterday with Nikoloz Basilashvili nicking the third set against Dusan Lajovic and coming back from all sorts of deficits in the process - set and break, and break down in set three were some of the hurdles that the Georgian had to overcome in what was eventually a tight match with both players having 13 break point chances.

It's always nice to get some positive variance on our side and today, Basilashvili has the opportunity to make round three with a meeting against Jan-Lennard Struff, who we also suspected was under-rated by the market for his clash with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga last night.

Struff favoured by the market for meeting with Basilashvili

The German, Struff, saved the only break point he faced while converting four of the 13 he managed to generate on Tsonga's serve in what was a straightforward 6-2 6-2 victory. The nature of this win for Struff, and the relatively difficult path to round two for Basilashvili is probably why the market is chalking up Struff as a [1.58] favourite, which based purely on data, doesn't look right to me. 2019 hard court numbers, as well as a little further back when looking at 12 month data, make the match-up likely to be pretty even.

Albot underdog value to get past Simon

I did consider looking at doubling down on Basilashvili but instead I'm going to favour Radu Albot today, with the Moldovan arguably having the best year of his career so far. This is certainly not the case for his opponent, Gilles Simon, with the veteran Frenchman struggling in recent months, with the exception of a run at Queens.

Despite this, Albot - who comes off the back of a run to the semi-finals last week in Los Cabos - is a [2.36] underdog for their meeting, which doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I'm not overly concerned about his exertions in Mexico last week, as he's had three days or so turnaround, and his matches there were generally quick, one-sided, affairs.

In main tour hard court matches, Albot has a higher (102.1%) combined serve/return points won percentage in the last 12 months than Simon (101.2%) so it seems apparent that the market is influenced by the reputation of the two players rather than the current reality.

Coric a fitness doubt for match with Gojowczyk

In other matches, I'm interested to see how Borna Coric does against Peter Gojowczyk, with the [1.41] about the young Croat seemingly generous at first glance although clearly based in part on his questionable fitness, following retirement in Halle, missing Wimbledon and then a bad defeat to Salvatore Caruso in Umag three weeks ago, which was his last match.

Isner could be pushed by improving Thompson

Furthermore, there's some other fascinating clashes with Jordan Thompson capable of testing John Isner and an interesting match-up between two players who have done well this year, Alex de Minaur and Dan Evans. We also see Washington winner Nick Kyrgios in action, against the Brit, Kyle Edmund, while Alexander Zverev and Main Cilic are both priced around the [1.30] mark against Cameron Norrie and Bradley Klahn, respectively.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan Weston,

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles