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ATP Rogers Cup Day Seven Tips: Accurate market pricing for the final

Spanish Tennis Player Rafa Nadal
Rafa Nadal is favourite to lift another trophy tonight...
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The Rogers Cup final takes place tonight in Montreal and after a successful week of recommendations, Dan Weston looks at who is likely to lift the trophy...

"12 month hard court data, however, is more in favour of Nadal. He's got around a 1.5% edge on serve and return points won percentages, which translates to around a 6% advantage on combined hold/break."

Monfils gives us a fifth straight winner

We picked up our fifth straight winner in Canada last night with underdog Gael Monfils nicking a final set tiebreak in his match with Roberto Bautista-Agut in what was a very even match indeed, statistically. Both players struggled with their break point conversion, with Monfils going two from nine and Bautista-Agut two from ten, and the Spaniard actually won five more points in the match.

Following this, Monfils pulled out of his meeting with Rafa Nadal with an ankle injury, and as discussed yesterday, it was obvious the winner would find it tough to play Nadal in back to back matches on the same day and the Spaniard got a pass to the final without even having to walk onto court.

Medvedev with excellent data this week in Canada

To lift the trophy, Nadal will need to defeat Daniil Medvedev, and he's unlikely to get a free pass from the Russian. Medvedev has better service data this week, winning 75% of service points to 69% for Nadal, and also better return data, with a 50-40 edge on return points won - in short, he deserves to get to this stage.

12 month hard court data, however, is more in favour of Nadal. He's got around a 1.5% edge on serve and return points won percentages, which translates to around a 6% advantage on combined hold/break. This, particularly given that Nadal tends to play a slightly higher quality of opposition, would indicate that the [1.47] market line is broadly correct, although Nadal does look a little short.

Medvedev with decent level against elite opponents

It's far from inconceivable that Medvedev will lift the trophy here. He's never met Nadal in a competitive match but has already beaten Novak Djokovic as a 3.00+ underdog this year, in Monte Carlo, and took a set off the world number one in Melbourne in January during the Australian Open. He's also taken a set from Roger Federer in quick conditions in Shanghai last season, and his record in quick conditions in general is pretty strong, and he is likely to be a threat unless fatigued in Cincinnati next week where conditions are likely to be a touch pacier than those in Montreal.

Summarising, Nadal is a deserving favourite but Medvedev - a player on a real upward curve - certainly has a decent chance of causing an upset. However, there's no pre-match value to act upon as our successful week in Canada draws to a close.

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Dan Weston,

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