ATP Australian Open Day 4: Young can keep it close against mediocre Kohlschreiber

Young can push Kohlschreiber overnight...
Young can push Kohlschreiber overnight...

There are 16 more men's matches at the Australian Open overnight as the second round draws to a close, and our tennis columnist Dan Weston returns to look at the best bets for Thursday...

"All told, the prices for the match are out of line with all statistics and logic, and Young really should be able to keep the match close at the very least."

Mixed results on Wednesday


Last night's action at Melbourne Park saw us record a win and a loss, with Stan Wawrinka easing past Steve Johnson as anticipated, but Ryan Harrison failing to take a second set point in his game handicap defeat to Tomas Berdych.


Young the value on a tough card


On what is quite a tough card tonight, with a number of correctly-priced heavy favourites, one player that I do quite like to turn the tables over a more-fancied opponent is Donald Young against Philipp Kohlschreiber.


Young is quite an inconsistent type, and certainly isn't a player that I find offers value particularly often, but following a difficult 2016, the market is pricing Kohlschreiber as if he was a top 20-30 player, despite his statistics indicating that he isn't close to this level. At the time of writing, Kohlschreiber is available at 1.422/5, with Young at 3.259/4.


The German has held serve 78.2% on hard courts in the last 12 months, which is touch below average, and his return numbers are also a little down on the ATP mean, breaking opponents 20.7% of the time (98.9% combined).


Young actually has similar stats, holding 77.1% and breaking 21.4% (98.5% combined) himself, so it is clear the markets are pricing Kohlschreiber more on reputation than ability, and fitness concerns following his withdrawal in Sydney last week are a further negative for Kohlschreiber's supporters.


All told, the prices for the match are out of line with all statistics and logic, and Young really should be able to keep the match close at the very least, against an opponent who is mediocre at best on return. Young +5.5 games is available at 1.824/5 and looks a decent proposition.


Hot prospects have a chance of a shock


Other underdogs with some appeal include young-guns Hyeon Chung - who has hugely under performed at break points throughout his young ATP career and has a great deal of upside, both from age and the likely mean-reversion in this area, and Frances Tiafoe, with both priced north of 5.004/1 against Grigor Dimitrov and Alexander Zverev, respectively, but today, on a tricky evening, we side with Young as our main bet.


Recommended Bets
Back Donald Young +5.5 games to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 1.824/5

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