Australian Open Women's Singles Day Seven: Martic unlikely to be able to stop the Mertens juggernaut

Dan Weston
20 January 2018

Outright pick Caroline Wozniacki is a heavy favourite on day seven...

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

After a fascinating day's play on day six of the women's singles event at the Australian Open, we now move into fourth round action, with four matches on Sunday's schedule. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, assesses the value on day seven...

"Incredibly, 19 of Mertens' last 20 wins when a sub 1.501/2 favourite have been settled in straight sets, and with this line available at 2.186/5 on the Exchange, this looks like an excellent value proposition."

Sharapova and Radwanska exit on day six

Saturday's pick, Maria Sharapova, disappointed in the extreme against Angelique Kerber - although it could have been much different had she converted a break point at 3-3 in the second set - and the German now progresses to face Su-Wei Hsieh in round four on Monday, after Hsieh shocked Agnieszka Radwanska in straight sets. The Pole, Radwanska, disappointed yet again in a Grand Slam, and really needs to take some time to evaluate where her career is now going.

In other action, one of the favourites for the tournament, Karolina Pliskova, edged fellow Czech big-server, Lucie Safarova, in two close sets, while one of our outright picks, Madison Keys, eased into round four with a straight sets victory over Ana Bogdan.

Halep triumphs with an incredible victory over Davis

In one of the most incredible matches in this year's event, Simona Halep triumphed 15-13 in the final set against Lauren Davis, saving three match points at *10-11 0-40, but it will be questionable how much that this victory has taken out of the Romanian, in advance of her next match against the Japanese big server, Naomi Osaka, who surprised home favourite Ash Barty.

Outright selection Wozniacki a heavy favourite to beat Rybarikova

Anett Kontaveit and Carla Suarez Navarro kick off matters on Sunday morning, with the Estonian, Kontaveit, a marginal 1.794/5 favourite. My model makes this about right - both players don't have the best hard court data - and should they face our outright selection,, Caroline Wozniacki in the quarter-final, both would be a pretty considerable underdog.

Wozniacki, first, will need to dispose of Magdalena Rybarikova, and is fairly reasonably priced at 1.222/9 to do so, enjoying around a 10% edge on both service hold percentage and breaking opponent percentage.

Mertens value to beat Martic in straight sets

As with the men's event, it's the third match on the card that offers some value, with Elise Mertens - our winner on Friday - again representing slight value, this time against Petra Martic. The Belgian currently is priced at 1.491/2 to win, with my model pricing her at 1.384/11, and she enjoys a huge edge on return against the very serve-orientated Martic, who is going to have to serve lights-out to have a chance of victory.

Incredibly, 19 of Mertens' last 20 wins when a sub 1.501/2 favourite have been settled in straight sets, and with this line available at 2.186/5 on the Exchange, this looks like an excellent value proposition.

Svitolina unlikely to be upset by Allertova

Finally, tournament favourite, Elina Svitolina, rounds of Sunday's action with a clash against the unheralded Denisa Allertova, with the Ukrainian a very heavy 1.201/5 favourite to make it into the quarter-finals on Tuesday, and I don't foresee an upset.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Australian Open 2018 on Betfair

Come to us for...

Value: The Exchange was best priced on 98% of Grand Slam singles matches in 2017
Live coverage: We are streaming every game in the main draws
Range of markets: Bet on match odds, set score, game-by-game and wide range of spreads and totals