WTA Australian Open Day 6: Bacsinszky can silence Australian crowd

Timea Bacsinszky has the ability to get past Daria Gavrilova on Saturday...
Timea Bacsinszky has the ability to get past Daria Gavrilova on Saturday...

With day six of the Australian Open starting overnight, our tennis columnist Dan Weston is back to look at the WTA schedule, and he likes opposing a home favourite on Saturday...

"Certainly there is statistically very little to justify this price on Gavrilova in what could be quite a swingy match"

Outright choice Kuznetsova progresses

The overnight action in the women's draw was mixed, with one of our outright selections, Elina Svitolina, succumbing in disappointing fashion to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, but Svetlana Kuznetsova getting past Jelena Jankovic eventually, in an epic.

There are a further eight matches on Saturday at Melbourne Park, where the third round of the tournament completes, and we are swiftly moving into the business end of the tournament.

Swings expected in Sakkari match

Some of these matches are of particular interest, with Maria Sakkari's clash with Mirjana Lucic-Baroni likely to be one which traders should enjoy - both players have a projected hold percentage below the WTA mean. Certainly, if Sakkari leads, my data indicates that she should be more vulnerable than average as a front-runner.

Another match which catches the eye is Caroline Wozniacki against Johanna Konta, with the Brit currently a 1.608/13 favourite. My model made this closer than the current odds suggest, and I am anticipating a tight match with fewer breaks of serve than average.

However, my main focus for Saturday is one of the later matches on the schedule, with Daria Gavrilova taking on Timea Bacsinszky for a place in the last 16.

Gavrilova a false favourite tomorrow

Despite requiring three sets to despatch both Naomi Broady and Ana Konjuh, Gavrilova currently enjoys favourite status, with the Australian available at 1.804/5 on the Exchange. Interestingly, my model virtually reversed the prices, making Bacsinszky the marginal favourite.

Indeed, the Swiss player has held serve 1.0% more than Gavrilova on hard courts in the last 12 months, and broken opponents 2.0% more as well, so the markets look to be over-rating Gavrilova - possibly due to being in front of her home crowd, an effect which has very little impact.

Certainly there is statistically very little to justify this price on Gavrilova, and in what could be quite a swingy match - both players are stronger than average when losing in matches, and Gavrilova worse than average when a front-runner - we have to side with the 12th seed, Bacsinszky, here.

Recommended Bets
Back Timea Bacsinszky to beat Daria Gavrilova at 2.226/5

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