Australian Open Tips: Djokovic to send Murray home

There's no patriotic sentimentality when Sean Calvert is predicting the outcome of a tennis match. Andy Murray should get a set against Novak Djokovic but he might as well start packing his bags home now...

It was two out of three bets won on Day 11 at the Australian Open, as Kim Clijsters ran out of gas in the decider against Victoria Azarenka in what was the sole losing one.

Still, if you'd backed all my tips from Day One, you'd have more than doubled your money despite a hit and miss second week, so we head into the final few days in decent shape.

There's only the one singles match today, but it's set to be a good one, with Andy Murray trying to make it to his fourth Grand Slam singles final.

Unfortunately for Andy, he has the world number one in his way and surprisingly, it will be just their second ever meeting in a Slam.

The first was one that Murray will want to forget, as he was insipid in the final here last year against Nole and he'll be desperate to put that right.

It's hard to gauge exactly what sort of form Murray's in coming into this match, as he hasn't played anyone inside the top-20 en route to the semi finals.

In truth, the Scot has had some gimmes and some perfect match-ups on his way to the last four, but he's played well in despatching them with ease.

We've seen Murray hanging closer to the baseline this fortnight and being a bit more aggressive and it's served him well, but I can't help but think that he'll go back into his shell a bit now that we're at the business end of the event.

Djokovic began this tournament like the metaphorical train and only came unstuck slightly when he took his foot way off the gas against Lleyton Hewitt.

He then appeared to be injured against David Ferrer, but managed to play through whatever it was and he now says that he's fine.

We've seen that sort of thing before from Nole though and I'm not concerned about his fitness at all against Murray.

More of a worry was his serving, which wasn't great, but then neither was Murray's against Nishikori.

I think that Murray's best chance is to strike early, as the defending champion has looked a little nervous at the beginning of recent matches and their final 12 months ago began very tentatively.

Whether Murray has it in him to be braver and come out all guns blazing is another matter of course, but I do think he'll be good enough to take a set at least.

The 1.422/5 about Djokovic looks a fair bet, but my wagers on this one will be to back Djokovic minus 2.5 games on the handicap at around 1.528/15 and to take the world number one to win the match by three sets to one at 3.814/5.

Recommended Bets

Back Djokovic -2.5 games at 1.528/15
Back Djokovic 3-1 at 3.814/5

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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