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Australian Open Third Round Tips: Consistent Zheng to get the better of Goerges again

Will Jie Zheng be celebrating another odds-against victory tonight?

"This is Zheng's favourite Slam, with two fourth rounds and a semi final showing on her last three visits here, while Goerges has always flattered to deceive at majors.."

Back Zheng to beat Goerges at 2.285/4

Tennis expert Sean Calvert is putting in the hours watching the Australian Open and he likes the look of the women's draw tonight - in particular an odds-against Chinese player to beat an overrated German..

Wednesday's wagers produced one easy winner and one bet that went down in a marathon final set at Melbourne Park.

Ricardas Berankis backers were sitting back in their armchairs with a satisfied look early on, as he cruised to a straight sets win over Flo Mayer, before Petra Kvitova backers assumed the same position after set one of her clash with Laura Robson.

However, Petra was all over the place throughout and a match that at times would have shamed a Sunday afternoon club fixture eventually went the way of the Brit 11-9 in the third. Kvitova hit 1.081/12 on the exchange during the painful defeat

Tonight's matches look more attractive from a viewing and betting perspective on the women's side of the draw and I have to take a chance on Jie Zheng against Julia Goerges at a tempting 2.285/4.

Zheng will be confident after a comeback win against Sam Stosur in the previous and although it was a massive choke from the Aussie, Zheng contributed a lot to that win and she takes on an opponent tonight who she's nullified in the past.

The Chinese player has won both of their career meetings, both on hard courts and the German looked less than impressive so far this season ahead of Melbourne.

This is Zheng's favourite Slam, with two fourth rounds and a semi-final showing on her last three visits here, while Goerges has always flattered to deceive at majors with just one fourth round finish at any Slam lifetime.

All things considered it's worth siding with the underdog in this one, which you can't really say about Heather Watson's clash with Aga Radwanska.

The Brit will find this a very tough match up and I might be tempted with the 6-0 set bet in this one. Aga double-bagelled the big hitting Dominkia Cibulkova last week and I don't see Watson having any answers tonight.

I also like the 1.625/8 about Marion Bartoli continuing her personal dominance over Ekaterina Makarova, who the French player has beaten for the loss of just two games in each of their two career meetings.

The men's matches don't appeal as much tonight with only perhaps an inspired Marcos Baghdatis capable of upsetting the odds against a player that the whole world seems to love these days in David Ferrer.

Sure, Ferrer has made the most of his talents, but lets be honest he's got no chance of winning a Slam barring injuries and if the Cypriot has one of those days where he serves really well he could make it close.

But a bet I prefer is for Nico Almagro to take down Jerzy Janowicz, who is still overrated after his Bercy run.

Almagro is way more experienced at this level and surely only a brilliant day on serve from Janowicz will see him even make this match close.

The Spaniard has reached the fourth round here for the last three years in a row and his consistent hitting off both wings will be too solid for the big Pole, who doesn't look like he fancies the heat much.

My bet in this one is to take Almagro to cover the minus 4.5 game handicap at around 1.910/11.

Recommended Bets
Back Zheng to beat Goerges at 2.285/4
Back Almagro -4.5 games to beat Janowicz at 1.910/11

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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17 January 2013

Australian Open

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