Australian Open Day Six Women's Tips: Wang with data edge over Sevastova

Chinese Tennis Player Qiang Wang
Qiang Wang looks decent value as a slight underdog tomorrow...

In what is a very open event, day six at the Australian Open sees eight further round three women's singles matches take place. Returning with his thoughts, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"Over the last 12 months on hard court, Wang has won a higher percentage of service and return points than Sevastova, while this data is slightly further in Wang's favour if we look at a shorter time scale as well."

Pavlychenkova nets us a decent underdog winner

We managed to pick up another win on Friday with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova drubbing Aliaksandra Sasnovich for a decent underdog victory, while I also highlighted the potential of Amanda Anisimova, with the 17 year old American - THE number one prospect on tour - getting the better of Aryna Sabalenka, who was fancied by many in the market for outright glory, in straight sets.

Williams the shortest priced player on competitive card

Saturday's women's singles matches continue to fascinate, with the tournament being so competitive. Very few matches look likely to be one-sided, with Serena Williams, who I actually feel looks a little short at 1.162/13 against the promising Dayana Yastremska, the shortest priced player in the market. Just Elina Svitolina and Naomi Osaka join the veteran American as being priced below 1.402/5 tomorrow.

Muguruza slight value assuming decent condition

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Garbine Muguruza finally completed her match with Johanna Konta at around 3:30am local time on Friday morning, and she returns to the court against Timea Bacsinszky tomorrow. Unsurprisingly, Muguruza, who is 1.4640/85 to make round four, has one of the later matches on the schedule, and assuming she's in decent condition after a long match during unsociable hours, looks a little value to progress against an opponent who hasn't hugely impressed since long-term injury.

Wang with a slight data edge over Sevastova

The other player I feel represents decent value on Saturday is Qiang Wang against Anastasija Sevastova. Wang ended 2018 with a bang, reaching at least the semi-final in all six of her tournaments post US Open, and winning a title in Guangzhou.

Wang has progressed here without an abundance of difficulty, defeating Fiona Ferro and Aleksandra Krunic in straight sets, with the win against Krunic seeing the Chinese player not even facing a single break point on her serve, winning 82% of service points in the process.

Sevastova will be a big upgrade on this duo, but I do feel Wang has a better chance than is reflected by market pricing. Over the last 12 months on hard court, Wang has won a higher percentage of service and return points than Sevastova, while this data is slightly further in Wang's favour if we look at a shorter time scale as well.

With this in mind, I feel that Wang should be a slight favourite for the match, therefore implying solid value on her current underdog price of 2.1211/10.

Halep an uneasy favourite over Venus

In other matches, Simona Halep looks a little uneasy at 1.4840/85 against Venus Williams. Whether Halep is fully fit is a big question, and she wasn't far from exiting against Sofia Kenin in round two. Williams' data isn't as good as her peak, but she could give Halep a decent match tomorrow.

Two other matches which are likely to be a little serve-orientated catch the eye, with Karolina Pliskova looking accurately priced at 1.608/13 against Camila Giorgi, while Madison Keys also looks about right as a marginal 1.738/11 favourite over Elise Mertens. As I've mentioned recently, Keys can make huge gains this season if she can enjoy a sustained spell of time without injuries, and it will be interesting to see how she fares against Mertens tomorrow.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Dan Weston Australian Open Daily Preview P&L

10 Matches, 8 Wins.
10 Units Staked, 15.9 Units Returned
59.00% ROI.

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