Australian Open Men's Betting: Wawrinka to get the better of Robredo at last

Wawrinka can overcome a poor head-to-head with Robredo
Wawrinka can overcome a poor head-to-head with Robredo

It's the start of the men's fourth round in Melbourne on Sunday and tennis expert Sean Calvert fancies Stan Wawrinka's title challenge to continue...

"Wawrinka is a much tougher prospect now than back in 2004 to 2008 when the majority of their meetings took place..."

Back Wawrinka to beat Robredo 3-1 at 3.814/5

The men's fourth round matches begin on Sunday in Melbourne as the draw begins to take shape in the 2014 Australian Open.

My outright back-to-lay selection of Stan Wawrinka is looking reasonable at the moment, with the Swiss having played a match-and-a-half fewer than most after Vasek Pospisil withdrew and Andrey Golubev retired and Stan takes to the court on Sunday having played just five completed sets.

Wawrinka faces a test ahead of a likely quarter final meeting with Novak Djokovic in the form of Tommy Robredo, who is always tough to dislodge from a major and who does possess a great record against Stan.

Robredo leads their career series, which stretches all the way back to 2004, by 6-1 and the Spaniard took down the Swiss twice last season in best of three set battles on clay and hard courts.

Granted, Wawrinka is a much tougher prospect now than back in 2004 to 2008 when the majority of their meetings took place, but Stan isn't known for his mental strength and he'll be taking nothing for granted in this one despite being a 1.42/5 shot.

Robredo has beaten Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet in his last two Slams and he has another single-handed backhand exponent in his sights today after the win over Gasquet here.

Tommy will no doubt try and dance around his backhand again, as he did against Gasquet and tempt Stan to go for the empty court. How often Robredo is successful with that tactic will be one of the keys to this encounter.

It's rare that Wawrinka does things the easy way and he was almost drawn into a battle with Alejandro Falla in round two, so the 1.42/5 doesn't tempt me as much as the 3-1 or 3-2 wins for Wawrinka and I like the former option at around 3.814/5.

Tomas Berdych takes on Kevin Anderson in a match-up that has been well and truly owned by the Berdman to the tune of 9-0 and 22 sets to four, so it's hard to see what hope the South African has in this clash.

Big Kev has been doing plenty in the off-season to improve his game, including bringing in a sports psychologist and switching racquets, but it would take one hell of a session with a psychologist to give Anderson any real belief in this one.

Berdych is a better version of Anderson and unless the Czech has a real off day, which is unlikely, the end result will either be a 3-0 or 3-1 win for the world number seven.

Where Anderson can score is in the 'most aces' market, as he does tend to fire more down than Berdych, but the best value wager for me on the stats has to lie in the 'set one total games' market.

In three of their last four meetings the first set has gone over 9.5 games and the one that didn't was won by Anderson at Wimbledon and therefore the 1.75/7 about that occurring must represent good value.

Both of these guys will be serving big and I'd be surprised if the opening set, which is so important to Anderson, was decided in nine games or fewer.

Recommended Bets

Back Wawrinka to beat Robredo 3-1 at 3.814/5
Back over 9.5 games in set one of Berdych/Anderson at 1.75/7

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