Australian Open Men's Betting: Tursunov to continue dominance over Istomin

The Tursunov forehand will be key against Istomin
The Tursunov forehand will be key against Istomin

The temperature has been a big problem for the players in Melbourne and it's set to be hot again on Wednesday. Sean Calvert talks us through the best bets on day three of the Australian Open...

"Tursunov has a perfect record of 3-0 and six sets to nil over Istomin and that superiority was backed up last week in Sydney when the Russian came out on top in similar conditions."

Back Tursunov to beat Istomin at 1.845/6

Tuesday was a memorable one at Melbourne Park, but not for the right reasons, as the extreme heat became the story of the day.

With the dial hitting 43c there were retirements, injuries, sickness and fainting on numerous courts and to top it all it wasn't a great night for my bets, with one winning bet being voided and another bet losing.

You know it's not your night when Gael Monfils doesn't put a foot wrong in a five set match, while Radek Stepanek's retirement against Blaz Kavcic voided my 3-0 Stepanek lay bet. Those that went the other way and backed Kavcic to win a set would have collected, but frustratingly not the layers of 3-0.

The all important conditions are forecast to peak at around 40C on Wednesday, but it will still be tough for the players, with Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych the biggest names on show.

Novak should ease past Leo Mayer with something to spare, as should Berdych against the one-dimensional French leftie Kenny De Schepper. I'm not so sure about Ferrer, who may not be quite such a good bet to win in straight sets on current form.

The heat will make it tough for those already struggling this week, including Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Edouard Roger-Vasselin and several others and I'm tempted to lay Jerzy Janowicz again, with the Pole struggling badly at the moment. I'm not sure that Pablo Andujar is the man for the job on a hard court though.

Richard Gasquet is another who's struggling with injury, but he should have enough to get past ageing Russian Nikolay Davydenko, who played five sets in his opener.

Indeed, there are an unusually large proportion of matches on Wednesday that involve injured or fatigued players, with Tommy Robredo and Julien Benneteau both having gone the distance first up and Fabio Fognini being another who came into this event in poor shape.

One match where all things should be more or less equal is Dmitry Tursunov against Denis Istomin and I like the chances of the Russian at a decent price of around 1.845/6 in this match-up.

Tursunov has a perfect record of 3-0 and six sets to nil over Istomin and that superiority was backed up last week in Sydney when the Russian came out on top in similar conditions.

Istomin's win over crowd favourite Marcos Baghdatis may not be as decent as it first appears, with the Cypriot struggling for form at the moment and looking far from his best.

Dmitry began his Melbourne campaign with a comfortable win over American veteran Michael Russell and that was the perfect start for him from which to build his tournament on. Taking care of Istomin for the fourth time is step two.

The Uzbek fails to convince in Melbourne, with just one third round appearance in his career and unless the heat plays a big part it's hard to see how he can turn round the match-up over a longer format.

Sam Querrey vs Ernests Gulbis is an intriguing one, with their personal series tied at 2-2 and both players holding poor records at this tournament.

Neither of them has been past the third round in Melbourne and Gulbis looks short to me based on my stats at around 1.68/13. A more likely occurrence is the over 40.5 total games at around 2.01/1. Neither player is top of the class when it comes to breaking serve and if Big Sam serves well this could be a tough evening for Ernie, who seems overrated here.

The late match local time (10am UK time approx.) should see Vasek Pospisil take care of Aussie battler Matt Ebden with a bit to spare.

The tough, but limited Aussie fought his way past Nicolas Mahut in five sets in round one, however he'll surely find that match will have taken a lot out of him and the much improved Canadian can take advantage.

Ebden admitted to tanking one of his sets against Mahut, which he lost 6-0 and he could well do the same again to save energy in this encounter. Popsisil hasn't been regarded as a great returner, but he dealt with big serving Sam Groth well enough in the last round, so the minus 4.5 games on the handicap looks good here at around 2.01/1.

Recommended Bets
Back Tursunov to beat Istomin at 1.845/6
Back over 40.5 games in Gulbis vs Querrey at 2.01/1
Back Pospisil -4.5 games to beat Ebden at 2.01/1

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