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Australian Open Fourth Round Tips: Almagro too much for tired Tipsarevic

Nicolas Almagro is our first bet on Sunday

"Tipsy's retirement/withdrawal figure is now a shocking 29 times in total, including three US Opens and one at each of the other three majors plus several Masters 1000s and the Davis Cup.."

Back Almagro to beat Tipsarevic at 1.774/5

After a successful day's tipping on Friday night Sean Calvert brings us his selections for Saturday's fourth round matches, starting with what looks a good opportunity for Nicolas Almagro..

Roger Federer's straight sets victory and Elena Vesnina's comeback win made it a winning double for my day six tips in Melbourne.

Federer had to fight to overturn a deficit in the second set tie break against Bernard Tomic, but once he had achieved that it was fairly comfortable for the Swiss against an opponent who played some great stuff in patches on his own serve.

The Aussie rarely threatened Federer's serve and once 2-0 up our bet was always looking good and it added to Vesnina's earlier win in which the Russian had to hold off a match point.

Day seven's line-up is far from inspiring in terms of betting potential, with the most competitive match appearing to be Nico Almagro vs Janko Tipsarevic.

And it's a tough one to call, with Tipsarevic a well-known exponent of 'sudden fatigue' and various other ailments that will surely come into play after two five set matches in a row for the Serb.

Tipsy's retirement/withdrawal figure is now a shocking 29 times in total including three US Opens and one at each of the other three majors plus several Masters 1000s and the Davis Cup.

But, once one set is completed the match odds market will be settled, so I suspect that's why Almagro is 1.774/5 favourite tonight, as they've never played each other in a competitive match on a hard court.

And it's worth noting that the three players who won five set battles in round three in Melbourne last year all went out very tamely in the fourth round, winning just 20 games between them.

Tipsarevic also has a poor record here in Melbourne, with this being his best ever showing already, while Almagro has reached the fourth round in each of the last three years.

In these conditions, which are expected to be hot again on Sunday, I like Nico's chances and he is the bet.

The women's draw looks a good place for favourite backers in the fourth round and I fully expect Aga Radwanska to prove too good for Ana Ivanovic tonight and come through with a 2-0 win.

The Serbian isn't up to it at this stage of majors these days and has only once been past the fourth round in 19 attempts in majors since her Roland Garros triumph in 2008 and I've seen nothing from her this week to think that will change tonight.

Radwanska is far more consistent and has too much variety in her game for Ivanovic's errant hitting to deal with and the Pole has outplayed Ana in all four of their meetings over the past four years.

I'd be surprised if Ivanovic was able to take set off Radwanska barring any extreme heat-related issues and the 1.758/11 about a 2-0 win looks worth taking.

Recommended Bets
Back Almagro to beat Tipsarevic at 1.774/5
Back Radwanska to beat Ivanovic 2-0 at 1.758/11

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19 January 2013

Australian Open

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