ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Djokovic to confirm year-end top ranking in style against Berdych

Novak Djokovic should qualify in style today
Novak Djokovic should qualify in style today

The final round robin matches of the 2014 ATP World Tour Finals are in-play on Friday the o2 and Sean Calvert expects Novak Djokovic to qualify in style...

"The slow conditions and acres of space behind the baseline create the perfect conditions for Novak's defensive game to prosper against heavy, but erratic hitters such as Berdych..."

Back under 19.5 total games at 1.910/11

The World Tour Finals produced the latest in its series of crushing wins last night, as Roger Federer came within a couple of points of handing out a double bagel to Andy Murray.

Federer, serving at only 38 percent, thrashed a hapless Murray love and one to easily land my minus 3.5 game handicap bet on the Swiss and hand Murray one of the heaviest defeats of his career.

Talking of heavy defeats, this afternoon is probably not one that Tomas Berdych is looking forward to with any great anticipation and excitement, as the Czech has the onerous task of defeating Novak Djokovic in order to survive in the tournament.

Berdych must not only beat Djokovic - something he has failed to do in 16 of their 18 career meetings - but also hope that he achieves a better result than Stan Wawrinka, who faces the winless Marin Cilic in the evening match.

Before we all get tapping away on calculators to figure out what Berdych needs to do let's look back on his almost double bagel loss to the Serbian in Beijing recently and consider that this surface favours Djokovic even more.

The slow conditions and acres of space behind the baseline create the perfect conditions for Novak's defensive game to prosper against heavy, but erratic hitters such as Berdych and the bets here surely must centre around the margin of victory for the Serb.

Djokovic will be motivated by the knowledge that he only needs to win this match today to be assured of the year-end number one ranking and he couldn't really have asked for a better opponent than Berdych for that purpose.

The Berdman has won one of the last 15 sets they've contested on a hard court and they way that Djokovic has played in these conditions both in Bercy and here this week makes it impossible to make a case for a Berdych win here.

The Czech at least improved from dreadful in his first match at the o2 this week to okay in his second, but he was given a lot of help by Marin Cilic, who had a shocker and later admitted that he was "feeling a little bit tired".

Tired isn't in the Djokovic vocabulary - even at this time of the year - and the 11.010/1 about there being a 6-0 set wouldn't be the worst big-priced wager I've seen this week.

Djokovic has won sets by 6-1 or 6-0 six times against Berdych in their career meetings so far and the other big-priced option is for Djokovic to take the opener by that 6-1 scoreline at 11.010/1.

Berdych was broken in six of his seven service games in that Beijing meeting and we've already seen Djokovic bagel Wawrinka this week, so I would suggest that either of those wagers could well go close today.

We almost saw two more 6-0 sets yesterday, so it seems unlikely we'll get another one, but the under 19.5 games at 1.910/11 looks good here, as does the 6-1 opener in what looks likely to be another one-sided affair.

Recommended Bet
Back under 19.5 total games at 1.910/11

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Djokovic to win set one 6-1 at 11.010/1

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