ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Murray to edge it against Federer

Sean hopes Andy Murray keeps his eye on the ball today

Sean Calvert is in fine tipping form at the ATP World Tour Finals. It's semi final Sunday at the O2 and Sean fancies a home win this evening when Andy Murray takes on Roger Federer..

"It should be a fascinating battle and one that I think Murray will edge in three sets.."

Back Murray to beat Federer 2-1 at 4.3100/30

Saturday brought a third straight winning bet when Juan Martin Del Potro defeated Roger Federer to land a 2.982/1 success and keep my outright wager on the Argentine running. 

Del Potro's reward, thanks to David Ferrer's win over Janko Tipsarevic, is a clash with Novak Djokovic, which is the opening match today at the O2, but the main event as far as UK fans are concerned comes this evening. 

Andy Murray takes on Roger Federer for the 20th time in their careers, with the Scot leading 11-8 so far in the series, but he hasn't beaten the Swiss indoors since 2008.

Indoor conditions clearly favour Federer, but the world number two hasn't impressed so far in London this week and the layers have Murray as the favourite today at around 1.758/11.

I'm not convinced that 1.758/11 represents a great deal of value particularly, with Federer defending his title here and Murray trying to reach the final for the first time at the O2 and a wiser wager to my mind seems to be to back a three setter. 

Federer can be excused his defeat to Delpo yesterday, as he had already qualified, but he has now lost four of his last six matches against top-10 players with wins over Ferrer and Tipsarevic the exceptions. 

The fitness and energy levels of both players at this very late stage of the season will be almost as relevant as the tactical battle, in which Murray will probably target Federer's backhand, which has been in full shank mode at times this week.

Federer will need to be ultra-aggressive today, as Murray has the edge in the longer rallies and we'll probably see the Swiss maestro coming to the net more often to finish the points quicker, which Murray won't mind too much as he can use his passing shots to good effect.

It should be a fascinating battle and one that I think Murray will edge in three sets, so my bet today is the 2-1 win for the Brit at 4.3100/30.

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Back Murray to beat Federer 2-1 at 4.3100/30

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