ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Ferrer can test Nadal on hard again in all-Spanish battle

Can Ferrer get the better of Nadal again today?
Can Ferrer get the better of Nadal again today?

Rafa Nadal and David Ferrer go head-to-head for the second time in a week today at the ATP World Tour Finals and Sean Calvert expects the underdog to test the world number one today...

"Ferrer has won each of their last three meetings on hard and indoor hard and the only time that he’s failed to cover a 4.5 game handicap start against Nadal on these surfaces was way back in Miami, where it’s slow, in 2005."

Back Ferrer +4.5 games to beat Nadal


The ATP World Tour Finals got off to a low-key opening and not a profitable one for my wagers, as a really poor performance from Tomas Berdych saw Stan Wawrinka defeat the Czech in three sets.

I had expected Wawrinka to be the more nervous of the two players, but Berdych was slow to start, tentative and the two most basic facets of his game let him down - the serve and the return.

His own serving was dreadful, particularly in the first set when he managed less than 40 percent of his first deliveries into play and the Czech was poor returning Stan's kicking second serve too.

Throw in some ghastly errors from the back of the court and an opponent playing well and it all adds up to a defeat that will probably see him out of the tournament early with Rafa Nadal and David Ferrer to play next.

Talking of Ferrer and Nadal, the Spanish pair face off against each other for the 26th time in their careers at 2pm UK time on Tuesday, with Nadal seeking swift revenge for his Bercy defeat at the hands of the Spanish number two last week.

And that loss has seen Rafa's price more than double to around 1.251/4 from last week's 1.111/9 after Ferrer produced an inspired performance to defeat the King of Clay in their first ever meeting on an indoor hard court.

Ferrer was defending his ranking points like his very existence depended upon it in Bercy though and can he summon up that sort of effort again in what will be his seventh straight week on the tour and 21st match since the start of the Asian swing?

That is far more than the other seven players in contention here and with his playing style he has to be in top shape physically to compete with the very top players and make no mistake, Rafa will be seething about that Bercy loss.

Playing conditions are the same as in Bercy, but this match rests of the level of intensity that both guys bring onto the court and we can assume that Nadal's will be high chasing to seal the year end number one rank and just a small drop in Ferrer's will see him likely to lose here.

The 1.261/4 isn't overly tempting on Nadal's least successful surface, where he's won just the one title - Madrid at altitude back in 2005 - although in fairness he doesn't play many indoor events; two this year, none in 2011 and 2012 and two in 2010, so his record is a bit misleading in that sense.

Value seekers will be siding with Ferrer here at around 4.84/1 and they could well be right, as away from clay the match-up seems to favour Ferrer more, as he is quick enough and takes the ball early enough to rush Rafa and the record off-clay shows this.

Ferrer has won each of their last three meetings on hard and indoor hard and the only time that he's failed to cover a 4.5 game handicap start against Nadal on these surfaces was way back in Miami, where it's slow, in 2005.

Their overall record away from the red dirt in completed tour level matches reads 5-2 to Ferrer and backing him with a 4.5 game start at 1.738/11 looks the wager today, as the fatigue factor concerning Ferrer is a worry and I'm not sure he has quite enough left to get the outright win.


Recommended Bet

Back Ferrer +4.5 games to beat Nadal


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