ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Djokovic and Nadal to go long in season finale

Djokovic and Nadal are set for another tight match tonight
Djokovic and Nadal are set for another tight match tonight

The championship match in this year's ATP World Tour Finals is all set for the o2 Arena in London at 8pm tonight between Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic and tennis expert Sean Calvert selects the best bets...

"Only six times in the last 53 sets between Rafa and Nole have they played a tie break, which makes the ‘No’ in tie break played a great bet on the numbers at around 1.910/11"

Back ‘no’ in tie break played at 1.910/11

It's the last match of the 2013 ATP World Tour season and it just had to be between the two outstanding players of the year and the numbers one and two in the world rankings.

Yesterday's wager at the o2 was a fairly comfortable odds-against success, with Nadal easing his way into the final with a straight sets win over Roger Federer, who has rarely been able to figure out a successful game plan to beat his nemesis.

So, it's the 39th meeting in all competitions between Rafa and Nole tonight with the Spaniard out to grab his first ever World Tour Finals crown and the Serb fighting to retain his title and get the first blow in ahead of Melbourne in a couple of month's time.

Their past history is well documented, with Nadal clearly superior on clay, while Djokovic has held an advantage on hard courts, which reads 10-5 on outdoor hard and 2-1 on indoor hard.

Therefore, Djokovic is a 1.68/13 favourite tonight, which is a little short for me and I'm sure if you're on Novak you'll get a higher price than that in-play, as I can see this one being another topsy-turvy affair, with three sets looking likely.

The score lines in sets contested between the two stars reveals a pattern of close matches but not close sets, with the vast majority of sets being settled before a tie break is required.

Only six times in the last 53 sets between Rafa and Nole have they played a tie break, which makes the 'No' in tie break played a great bet on the numbers at around 1.910/11.

Their opening sets are rarely close either, with the last six ending in 10 games or fewer and 6-2, 6-3 and 6-4 being a scores for your shortlist in the set one correct score market. Only three times in their last 15 opening sets has the score been 7-5 and only once in the last 18 has it gone to 7-6.

At this late stage of the year much will depend on the respective fitness of these two superstars and Nadal should have the edge having played six sets fewer than Djokovic in the last fortnight and Novak still has the Davis Cup final to play next weekend.

Indeed, with Janko Tipsarevic out of form and fitness and Viktor Troicki banned even more will be required from Novak in four day's time and one wonders how much he'll need to keep in reserve for that.

Nole has played 84 matches this season already, with Rafa notching up 82, but that's fairly normal for this pair and the Davis Cup may be more of a factor here.

Conditions here suit both players, with the speed at the o2 being slow and plenty of long rallies will also bring the conditioning factor into play.

I suspect what we'll see here is each player winning a set fairly comfortably and a decider being played, which could go either way, with Djokovic's record on this surface giving him a narrow edge - if he's got enough left in the tank.

I like the no tie breaks bet and the three sets wager at around 2.47/5 here, with Cash Out backers looking at the set one correct score markets and the 2-1 Djokovic win at 4.3100/30, which looks a good investment.

Recommended Bet
Back 'no' in tie break played at 1.910/11
Back three sets at 2.47/5

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Djokovic to win 2-1 at 4.3100/30

ATP P&L 2013

If you had backed all of Sean Calvert's ATP tennis tips this season with a £10 stake you would currently be + £1082.30.

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles